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2004 Investment Outlook

Contributed by mm | January 3, 2004 07:06 PM PST



USAToday summarizes how a dozen of Wall Street's top strategists look for stocks, interest rates and corporate earnings. Below is the prediction for S&P 500 target for 2004 year end. The entire forecast can be found in this table.

Strategist  Firm  2004 S&P target  Change from 2003 
Edward Yardeni Prudential 1300 16.9%
Abby Joseph Cohen Goldman Sachs 1250 12.4%
Brian Belski Piper Jaffray 1200 7.9%
Stuart Freeman A.G. Edwards 1180 6.1%
Thomas McManus Banc of America 1160 4.3%
Chip Dickson Lehman Bros. 1150 3.4%
Gary Gordon UBS 1150 3.4%
Hugh Johnson First Albany 1150 3.4%
Steve Galbraith Morgan Stanley 1125 1.2%
Abhijit Chakrabortti J.P. Morgan 1120 0.7%
Tobias Levkovich Smith Barney 1025 -7.8%
Richard Bernstein Merrill Lynch 890 -20.0%

Conspicuously, in the verbatims almost everyone accepted that the first half of 2004 will be good for investors. The lessons from the pass few years is when most people only look in one direction, the turning point is almost always around the corner. How soon will the market turn south this time?

(BusinessWeek has a more complete list of predictions from 66 pros here.)

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