Winning Streak in Election Years
According to Stock Trader's Almanac, 2000 is the first time in 40 years that stock market went south in an election year. Here is the scorecard for all election years in the last 40 years:
Year, S&P 500 Change, President Elected
1960, -3.0%, John F. Kennedy
1964, 13.0%, Lyndon Johnson
1968, 7.7%, Richard Nixon
1972, 15.6%, Richard Nixon
1976, 19.1%, Jimmy Carter
1980, 25.8%, Ronald Reagan
1984, 1.4%, Ronald Reagan
1988, 12.4%, George H. Bush
1992, 4.5%, Bill Clinton
1996, 20.3%, Bill Clinton
2000, -10.1%, George W. Bush
In addition, one may argue 2000 is a year of exception because of the uncertainties surrounding the contested election results through the very end of the year.
What's in it for 2004?
(P.S. People interested in this topic should also read this Bloomberg article.)
USAToday summarizes how a dozen of Wall Street's top strategists look for stocks, interest rates and corporate earnings. Below is the prediction for S&P 500 target for 2004 year end. The entire forecast can be found in this table. Read
I don't usually enjoy reading Kenneth Fisher's column but his recent Forbes article The Great Humiliator is a fresh breeze. Ken wrote "[h]ow long should this bull market last? Until the last bear cries uncle." and said we will not see the end of the ... Read
E*Trade made the headline by announcing it will rebate half of the 12b-1 fees to fund investors. 12b-1 fee was invented in 1980 to help small funds to compete with large funds by allowing a mutual fund to pay distribution and marketing expenses with fund's ... Read
Bill Gross, the legendary bond investor and head of PIMCO, offers his opinion in the December issue of Investment Outlook. In short, he recommends two things: Read
