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Microsoft SOTP Averaging Period Ends, Average Price = $25.5775

Contributed by mm | December 8, 2003 1:46 PM PST

The averaging period for the Microsoft Stock Option Transfer Program finally ends today. According to my calculation, the average price during the averaging period is $25.5775. The price will be used to calculate the exact amount of money each program participants will get in return for the tendered stock options.

Date DJ 30 Close S&P 500 Close MSFT Close MSFT Volume
13-Nov-03 9,837.94 1,058.41  $      25.69 78,949,504
Average Period Starts      
14-Nov-03 9,768.68 1,050.35  $      25.50 83,146,400
17-Nov-03 9,710.83 1,043.63  $      25.15 103,900,200
18-Nov-03 9,624.16 1,034.15  $      25.15 106,868,304
19-Nov-03 9,690.46 1,042.44  $      25.35 78,853,296
20-Nov-03 9,619.42 1,033.65  $      25.10 106,845,696
21-Nov-03 9,628.53 1,035.28  $      25.11 70,712,896
24-Nov-03 9,747.79 1,052.08  $      25.73 99,463,800
25-Nov-03 9,763.94 1,053.89  $      25.40 85,663,800
26-Nov-03 9,779.57 1,058.45  $      25.45 69,758,400
28-Nov-03 9,782.46 1,058.20  $      25.71 33,402,600
1-Dec-03 9,899.05 1,070.12  $      25.84 101,914,600
2-Dec-03 9,853.64 1,066.62  $      25.66 85,121,696
3-Dec-03 9,873.42 1,064.73  $      25.67 93,121,600
4-Dec-03 9,930.82 1,069.72  $      26.20 87,202,400
5-Dec-03 9,862.68 1,061.50  $      25.98 96,610,896
8-Dec-03 9,965.27 1,069.30  $      26.24 90,353,528
Average During Averaging Period    
       $  25.5775 87,058,757
Change Since Averaging Period Starts  
  1.29% 1.03% 2.14%  

It is worth noting that unlike my original forecast, Microsoft stock price held on pretty well during the period despite massive sell-off (during the period MSFT actually advanced 2.14% compared to S&P 500's 1.03% gain and DJ 30's 1.29% gain). However, people are raising questions as of whether JP Morgan intentionally knocked down Microsoft stock price just before the averaging period started. This may be perfectly legal for JP Morgan, and as the article said, "[w]e may never know exactly how this thing works."

As a stakeholder, I have been closely watching the progress of this program(see my related posts: #1,#2,#3). With this not-so-bad final price, I believe I have achieved maximum benefit out of the program. The after-tax gain of $3,500 is not substantial, but it is not negligible either. I have no doubt that I made the best choice bsed on information I have. I still have strong belief in the three considerations affecting my decisions in my previous post:

1) Microsoft stock price needs to climb beyond its intrinsic value to make non-participants profitable (and I'm a value investor)

2) I have diversified my portfolio by participating in this program

3) I still keep choices open as of profiting from Microsoft stock price increase. (MSFT Jan 06 $35 call option changed hands at $1.35 as recently as today.)

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