My Personal Finance Journey

Personal finance observation, musing and decisions in a journey toward financial independence by 2020 with at least $3 million.


By Topics

Overall:
0. About (10)
1. My Progress (139)
2. Car & Home (107)
3. Credit (138)
4. Banking (33)
5. Saving (49)
6. Investing (308)
7. Taxes (89)
8. Spending (74)
9. Misc (97)
A. Archive (49)



MONTHLY ARCHIVE

Feb 2014 (3)
Jan 2014 (6)
Jan 2012 (1)
Apr 2011 (1)
Mar 2011 (1)
Feb 2011 (1)
Jan 2011 (1)
Dec 2010 (1)
Oct 2010 (1)
Sep 2010 (1)
Aug 2010 (1)
Jul 2010 (1)
Jun 2010 (1)
May 2010 (1)
Apr 2010 (1)
Mar 2010 (6)
Feb 2010 (2)
Jan 2010 (7)
Dec 2009 (3)
Feb 2009 (4)
Jan 2009 (8)
Dec 2008 (1)
Jun 2008 (2)
May 2008 (2)
Apr 2008 (5)
Feb 2008 (3)
Jan 2008 (15)
Dec 2007 (32)
Nov 2007 (6)
Oct 2007 (8)
Sep 2007 (9)
Aug 2007 (24)
Jul 2007 (2)
Jun 2007 (1)
May 2007 (3)
Apr 2007 (4)
Mar 2007 (4)
Feb 2007 (13)
Jan 2007 (6)
Dec 2006 (3)
Nov 2006 (7)
Oct 2006 (7)
Sep 2006 (6)
Aug 2006 (4)
Jul 2006 (10)
Jun 2006 (1)
May 2006 (3)
Apr 2006 (2)
Mar 2006 (6)
Feb 2006 (6)
Jan 2006 (3)
Dec 2005 (1)
Nov 2005 (9)
Oct 2005 (8)
Sep 2005 (13)
Aug 2005 (25)
Jul 2005 (16)
Jun 2005 (17)
May 2005 (19)
Apr 2005 (20)
Mar 2005 (24)
Feb 2005 (23)
Jan 2005 (36)
Dec 2004 (40)
Nov 2004 (34)
Oct 2004 (17)
Sep 2004 (21)
Aug 2004 (59)
Jul 2004 (37)
Jun 2004 (31)
May 2004 (29)
Apr 2004 (52)
Mar 2004 (49)
Feb 2004 (49)
Jan 2004 (31)
Dec 2003 (48)
Nov 2003 (52)
Oct 2003 (29)
Sep 2003 (8)
Aug 2003 (5)
Jul 2003 (2)
Jun 2003 (2)
May 2003 (5)
Apr 2003 (2)
Mar 2003 (2)
Feb 2003 (3)
Jan 2003 (29)



 

Holding Analysis - PPD Q3 Conference Call

Contributed by mm | October 29, 2003 2:59 PM PST

I listened to PPD's Q3 conference call today. Some of my takeaways:

- The company is apparently accumulating a large cash pile now. It has $30M on hand, and is committed to withdrawing all of the $25M credit line for stock buyback. If it is to use only $30M to repurchase shares in Q4, it will be able to retire at least 1 million shares while still having a good enough cash coffer. My wide ass guess is the company withheld share repurchase in Q3 in attempt to conduct a mass repurchase in a short period of time to force a short sequeeze. (In the extreme case, if they use $55M to buy stocks in one month, it will mean almost 2 million shares that amounts to 50% of normal daily volume.)

- The company says paying dividend is a question of when, not if. In the clauses of the credit line, the company can pay up to $1.8M/quarter in dividends. This amounts to $0.10-0.11/share quarter, or a dividend yield of 1.5%. (It is not much indeed.) Company says they are balancing options and trying to allocate money to the best resources. It looks like the company thinks PPD is still at attractive price for repurchase.

- The company explained some of the surprises in the financial statements. The loss in associate P&L is mainly due to some new programs. Also noticably, company expects $1M less cash flow in tax payment in Q4.

- The new Identity Shield program is a success. Introduced in August, the program already has close to 40,000 subscribers, mostly paying $9.95/month. If the company can push this to 10% of the total active memberships (or 140,000 subscribers, 10% seems to be reasonable expectation), it can generate $16.7M annual revenue. It should bring much-needed top-line growth to combat the short sellers. On the flip side, this program means PPD needs to buy credit information AND provide legal assistance on identify theft, which should means less margin for PPD. (For example, the major credit agencies are selling credit information subscription for $60-$80/year. I don't PPD can keep cost of goods at 33%-34% for this service.)

- The company will move into new facilities in December and this may translate to higher working efficiency.

This conference call makes me feel there is certain short-term opportunity for the stock. I am also more convinced that the management is still committed to returning value to shareholders in the means of buyback or dividend. I'm raising my price target from $28 to $34.

More PFBlog Articles You Might Find Interesting ...



Read More ... 308 Posts In The Same Category










This page was last rebuilt at January 27, 2014 07:56 AM PST.
 

RSS FEED





PERSONAL FINANCE BLOGS I READ

Consumerism Commentary
Get Rich Slowly
My Money Blog
All Financial Matters
The Simple Dollar






.

Error 500 - Internal server error

Error 500 - Internal server error

An internal server error has occured!
Please try again later.



Copyright 2003-2014, PFBlog.com. All Rights Reserved. (Privacy Policy)