Contributed by mm | January 16, 2003 06:12 AM
PST
In my monthly scorecard, I report "Month-to-Retire" as a key metric of the progress of my retirement plan. This metric is defined by using the "retirometer" process.
Retiroment is a simple mathematical calculation that estimates number of months I need to continue work and invest my money to reach the retirement target of $1,000,000. It assumes:
Assumption #1: I'll make a monthly contribution of $2,000 into my retirement fund. That amount is after tax and after all expenses.
More often than not in the part 12 months, we can easily save more than $2,000. Especially, when my wife is working on part time jobs, we can save much more.
Assumption #2: The monthly contribution amount will increase 3% ever year to reflect earning increase and inflation.
The 3% annual contribution increase goal is less than the average US inflation rate in the last few decades (4.0%). In addition, I plan to save majority of the income increases, so a modest 2% top-line increase can translate to maybe 5% in saving increases.
Assumption #3: My retirement fund will grow 8.0% after-tax annually and compound every month.
For a long period, 8% investment return can simply be attained by investing in stock indexes. Although home value will grow much slowly, it will represent an at leat 5:1 leverage for home equity (assuming 20% down payment) and all gains below $1M are tax free. Therefore, even for the home equity part in the retirement fund pool, a growth goal of 8% per annum is still reasonable.
Admittedly, Retirometer is a very rough estimate as it does not consider asset type (real estate, car, tax-advantaged accounts vs ordinary accounts, etc.) and simplify tax effect. But as I make pretty conservative assumptions, my Retirometer is also a conservative view of my progress toward early retirement. I'm looking forward to beating the speed implied in the retiroment in the next few years.
Key output of the model:
- To start from scratch (zero retirement fund) it takes 191 months to build a net worth of $1,000,000.
- Amount to possess with X years to retirement:
|
Years to Retirement |
Total Net Worth Necessary |
|
1 |
$ 888,973 |
|
2 |
$ 787,285 |
|
3 |
$ 694,207 |
|
4 |
$ 609,069 |
|
5 |
$ 531,250 |
|
6 |
$ 460,175 |
|
7 |
$ 395,314 |
|
8 |
$ 336,178 |
|
9 |
$ 282,313 |
|
10 |
$ 233,303 |
|
11 |
$ 188,760 |
|
12 |
$ 148,328 |
|
13 |
$ 111,677 |
|
14 |
$ 78,503 |
|
15 |
$ 48,526 |
Monthly Review - October 2003 ($124,556, +$4,663) (November 01, 2003)
SUMMARY
Fueled by a sizable investment gain, I'm closing October with a net worth of $124,566 (increase of $4,663) and liquidation value of $99,177 (increase of $4,691). This brings Month-to-Retire to 152 or June 2016. Read
Monthly Review - September 2003 ($119,902, +$10,576) (October 01, 2003)
SUMMARY
Strengthened by annual performance bonus from Microsoft, September is closed with net worth of $119,902, 9.7% increase over last month. Liquidation value goes up 11.8% to $94,487. This brings expected Month-To-Retire down two notches to July 2016. Read
Backgrounder (January 01, 2003)
This is a personal journal to track my progress to accumulate enough wealth to retire by 40 (Year 2016). Read
Hi, you missed Assumption #4, inflation. Also, you should do it with and without the equity in your home. Counting home equity is only good if you don't plan on living there in retirement. Option 1 is to live in the home. Option 2 is to sell the house then go live in a cheaper area.
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