10%+ risk free? Try again. Doesn't exist. You should spend 15 minutes thinking of the risks associated with that investment. 10% doesn't come cheap. No doubt there are LOTS of risks.

Welcome Back!

With that +10% China MM fund, you are essentially going short on the US Dollar. I would reconsider that position given the historic lows of the USD recently. (Yes, the FED does this and that, but the market knows that too. It's priced in already.)

welcome back MM...we all love the blog, but realize work comes first

Check your money market funds carefully.

Here's your scary read of the day, from $400,000 to $5,000...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/opes-prime-collapse-down-under.html

Welcome back!! Good to hear from you. We should be in for a good ride this summer. Until later, all the best.

I think a significant amount of your advantage over the benchmark comes from the fact that you have almost two as much money in your money market (15% vs 29%).

FWIW - Staying out of the market has been shown to be a money loser over the long haul since you miss the large swing days that account for a large portion of the overall market gains.

I see you deleted my post after it was showing for more than a week on your January portfolio update, so I'll ask it again: What exactly is the point of your "target price" column? Specifically, BRK.B passed your target of $4500, you raised to $4700, which it passed again on it's way to $4985 on Dec 10th. Still no sell. But now, after I asked the question, I see the target is revised again, now to $4900. Wasn't the point to "establish discipline in selling" or something like that? I understand revising if your analysis suggests a higher value, but it doesn't seem likely given your frequent, arbitrary revisions. So, what's the point?

John, it is pretty easy. There is a time value associated: companies keep getting cash will see their value increase over time.

MM, nice try, but that explantion doesn't add up with your actions in changing the target because your price target changes don't coincide with Berkshire's filings. Also, you didn't answer my question of what the point of your target price is. Is it a "sell above" point? If not, what do you use it for?

it is a "full valued" and "considering selling" target. if you don't like it, just ignore that. I don't feel by publishing it i'm obliged to selling it when the price crosses the target.

I don't buy the absence....you had time to buy and sell your positions while you were "traveling" for this screwed up billion dollar P&L. What are you hiding Daniel-son?

MM - I can't believe you said that shorting the dollar is a 'risk free' proposition. You are turning around a $1bil P&L, and you consider shorting currencies to be risk-free?

What would your benchmark return be if it was invested as conservatively as your actual portfolio?