I'm bottom-fishing again: with today's 2% jump in NASDAQ, I added 10 contracts of WDMH (QQQ Jan 06 $34 Put) at $3.50 into my Roth IRA account. Now that my bearish option plays (below table) are valuing at close to $8,800, I probably will not add more positions for a while.
|
|
Quantity |
Current Price |
Cost Basis |
Gain/Loss % |
Strike Price |
Breakeven Price |
Current Stock Price |
Difference |
.ZMFME |
MSFT Jan 05 $25 Put |
1000 |
$ 1.75 |
$ 1.35 |
29.6% |
$ 25.00 |
$ 23.65 |
26.16 |
-9.6% |
.YWZMD |
QQQ Jan 06 $37 Put |
600 |
$ 4.80 |
$ 5.23 |
-8.2% |
$ 37.00 |
$ 31.77 |
36.01 |
-11.8% |
.WDMH |
QQQ Jan 06 $34 Put |
1000 |
$ 3.50 |
$ 3.54 |
-1.1% |
$ 34.00 |
$ 30.46 |
36.01 |
-15.4% |
.WDMG |
QQQ Jan 06 $33 Put |
200 |
$ 3.10 |
$ 3.12 |
-0.6% |
$ 33.00 |
$ 29.88 |
36.01 |
-17.0% |
As shown in the above table, I'm counting on 12-17% drop of NASDAQ from the current value in the next 18 months to break even. I'm quite confident about these bets -- I'm very much convinced we will see some harsh reality in the months ahead.
As a final note, I am considering to sell to close my MSFT bearish put for January 2005 when the price is right. With less than 7 months in the contract, the time is not on my side.