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MSFT in SOTP Averaging Period

Contributed by mm | November 22, 2003 5:36 AM PST

MSFT closed today at $25.11. Since the start of the "averaging period" on November 14, MSFT has declined 2.26%. During the same period, S&P 500 gave up 2.19% and DJ 30 declined 2.13%.

Date DJ 30 Close S&P 500 Close MSFT Close MSFT Volume
13-Nov-03 9,837.94 1,058.41  $      25.69 78,949,504
Average Period Starts      
14-Nov-03 9,768.68 1,050.35  $      25.50 83,146,400
17-Nov-03 9,710.83 1,043.63  $      25.15 103,900,200
18-Nov-03 9,624.16 1,034.15  $      25.15 106,868,304
19-Nov-03 9,690.46 1,042.44  $      25.35 78,853,296
20-Nov-03 9,619.42 1,033.65  $      25.10 106,845,696
21-Nov-03 9,628.53 1,035.28  $      25.11 70,712,896
Average During Averaging Period    
       $      25.23 91,721,132
Change Since Averaging Period Starts  
  -2.13% -2.19% -2.26%  

I consider MSFT as holding itself pretty strong at the moment despite the much-higher-than-past volume due to JPMorgan selloff. Considering that the average daily volume in Q3 is 54.9 million shares/day, the current average volume in the averaging period implies that the daily selloff by JPMorgan is likely to be between 20 million to 30 million shares. It is in line with my estimate of 15 million to 25 million shares/day when MSFT first announced the details of the program.

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