My Personal Finance Journey

Personal finance observation, musing and decisions in a journey toward financial independence by 2020 with at least $3 million.


By Topics

Overall:
0. About (10)
1. My Progress (139)
2. Car & Home (107)
3. Credit (138)
4. Banking (33)
5. Saving (49)
6. Investing (308)
7. Taxes (89)
8. Spending (74)
9. Misc (97)
A. Archive (49)



MONTHLY ARCHIVE

Feb 2014 (3)
Jan 2014 (6)
Jan 2012 (1)
Apr 2011 (1)
Mar 2011 (1)
Feb 2011 (1)
Jan 2011 (1)
Dec 2010 (1)
Oct 2010 (1)
Sep 2010 (1)
Aug 2010 (1)
Jul 2010 (1)
Jun 2010 (1)
May 2010 (1)
Apr 2010 (1)
Mar 2010 (6)
Feb 2010 (2)
Jan 2010 (7)
Dec 2009 (3)
Feb 2009 (4)
Jan 2009 (8)
Dec 2008 (1)
Jun 2008 (2)
May 2008 (2)
Apr 2008 (5)
Feb 2008 (3)
Jan 2008 (15)
Dec 2007 (32)
Nov 2007 (6)
Oct 2007 (8)
Sep 2007 (9)
Aug 2007 (24)
Jul 2007 (2)
Jun 2007 (1)
May 2007 (3)
Apr 2007 (4)
Mar 2007 (4)
Feb 2007 (13)
Jan 2007 (6)
Dec 2006 (3)
Nov 2006 (7)
Oct 2006 (7)
Sep 2006 (6)
Aug 2006 (4)
Jul 2006 (10)
Jun 2006 (1)
May 2006 (3)
Apr 2006 (2)
Mar 2006 (6)
Feb 2006 (6)
Jan 2006 (3)
Dec 2005 (1)
Nov 2005 (9)
Oct 2005 (8)
Sep 2005 (13)
Aug 2005 (25)
Jul 2005 (16)
Jun 2005 (17)
May 2005 (19)
Apr 2005 (20)
Mar 2005 (24)
Feb 2005 (23)
Jan 2005 (36)
Dec 2004 (40)
Nov 2004 (34)
Oct 2004 (17)
Sep 2004 (21)
Aug 2004 (59)
Jul 2004 (37)
Jun 2004 (31)
May 2004 (29)
Apr 2004 (52)
Mar 2004 (49)
Feb 2004 (49)
Jan 2004 (31)
Dec 2003 (48)
Nov 2003 (52)
Oct 2003 (29)
Sep 2003 (8)
Aug 2003 (5)
Jul 2003 (2)
Jun 2003 (2)
May 2003 (5)
Apr 2003 (2)
Mar 2003 (2)
Feb 2003 (3)
Jan 2003 (29)



 

Crude Humor (Oil at $100 Per Barrel?)

Contributed by mm | April 15, 2004 2:33 PM PST

SmartMoney has an interview of Stephen Leeb, whose book "The Oil Factor" predicts a gas price of $100 per barrel in three to six years.

The article devoted most of its length to the discussion of the ramifications of the predicted expensive oil but didn't give much clue about how Stephen made this bold claim. Actually, when asked about the $100-per-barrel prediction, Stephen barely says:

"If you go back to the end of 1998, oil was trading near single digits. So we've had a threefold increase in oil prices in a relatively short period of time, and I'm basically just projecting an ongoing trend. I think we'll get another threefold increase, and it may happen in five or six years, or three or four years. The overall point I'm trying to make is that oil prices are in a dramatic uptrend and are likely to remain in an uptrend for the foreseeable future."

What a rear-mirror-view logic! Yes, I agree that it is important that people should have some awareness and understanding (and probably some small investment exposure) of commodities like oil and gold, but this kind of poor reasoning just make me sick. Why oil price should follow the chart from 1998, not from 1980? Compared to 1980, the current oil price is actually lower when inflation-adjusted, and can we conclude that oil price will level out in the next two decades?

I can hardly believe we will see oil trading at $100 per barrel at today's dollar (i.e. inflation-adjusted) in the next decade or two. I bet before we see $100, numerous replacement solutions will be developed to replace oil as our primary energy resource.

Maybe SmartMoney didn't bother to document the logic of this outrageous claim. Maybe not. But I will not buy the book "The Oil Factor" anyway. I don't think it is worth my time.

More PFBlog Articles You Might Find Interesting ...


This Post Has Received 1 Comment. Share Your Opinions Too.


James Commented on January 25, 2005

You should read the book. I'm a Chemical Engineer and the solutions you've conveniently thrown out all have risks, require extensive funding, have extensive development times, and worst of all, in sum, would only scrape the surface of providing an efficient energy source. Not to mention health, shipping, and handling challenges incremental to current practices.



Read More ... 98 Posts In The Same Category










This page was last rebuilt at January 27, 2014 07:50 AM PST.
 

RSS FEED





PERSONAL FINANCE BLOGS I READ

Consumerism Commentary
Get Rich Slowly
My Money Blog
All Financial Matters
The Simple Dollar






.

Error 500 - Internal server error

Error 500 - Internal server error

An internal server error has occured!
Please try again later.



Copyright 2003-2014, PFBlog.com. All Rights Reserved. (Privacy Policy)