Economic Outlook is Brighter
WSJ published a survey of 53 economists. Those people are apparently looking forward to a brighter future now. Among their forecasts:
GDP: Q4 2003 = 4.0%, Q1 2004 = 4.1%, Q2-Q4 2004 = 3.9%
CPI: 2003 = 2.2%, 2004 = 1.9%
Unemployment: November 2003 = 6.0%, May 2004 = 5.8%
Fed Rate: December 2003 = 1.0%, June 2004 = 1.28%
One economist, A. Gary Shilling, from A. Gary Shilling & Co. Inc., is especially pessimistic. He is actually forecasting:
GDP: Q1 2004 = -0.1%, Q2 2004 = -1.8%
CPI: May 2004 = 0.0%
Unemployment: May 2004 = 6.8%
Fed Rate: June 2004 = 0.75%
I'm no way to be an economist. But my gut feeling is economy will be getting better for the next twelve months. However, the high deficit may bring some intermediate term problems like high inflation in 2005-2006.
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