Thank you for all the feedback and suggestions after I posted the situation I am in. As one reader suggested, let me go back to my financial analysis roots and run the math. I'll evaluate two options: Option 1 being selling the house now, and reinvest the home equity I can cash out; Option 2 being becoming an absentee landlord for the next two years, and selling the house afterwards in anticipation for some more price appreciation.

Since the housing price trend in the next two years is a big variable, I'll lock in the rest of the model while trying to calculate the break-even appreciation that makes both options equally attractive.

Option 1: Sell

The financial consequences of selling is easy to quantify. I will be able to cash out my home equity of $146,600, and assuming an annual after-tax return of 5%, we will end up with $15,000 in investment income after two years.

Option 2: Rent Out for Two Years and Sell Afterwards

The math for Option 2 is quite complex. Below is the pro forma P&L I anticipated (some explanations follow):

• Line 2/Lapse Between Renters: This is to assume the home will be idle for 25 days every year between renters (with no rental income).

• Line 4/Property Management Fee: Based on my preliminary research, local property management company like this one can offer full-service management at a fee of 5-10% rental income. 10% is used for modeling purposes here.

• Line 7/Mortage Payment (Interest): Only the mortgage interest portion is included. I consider this as an economic impact exercise instead of a cashflow exercise, and since any principal payment will be returned to be after the eventual sale, the economic impact is minimal (little investment income on $400/month, which can be ignored.)

• Line 11/Maintenance: Some maintenance cost is budgeted -- the house is relatively new and in the last two years, it only costs me less than $400/year for upkeep.

• Line 14/Absentee Landlord's Pain: This line monetizes the hassle/pain/pressure as an absentee landlord. In other words, if someone pays me $2,400 a year, I will be happy to put some hours to be an absentee landlord (with the full-service property management company covering my base).

The monthly P&L analysis ends up with an economic profit of $28 a month. To complete the full model that considers the impact after selling in two years, I need to include the closing cost of sale as 5% of the total property price (line 22). I didn't use the 7%, or $30,000 number because if I have to pay the closing cost, I would consider For Sale By Owner (FSBO) to save some commission. (As a side note, I didn't include the tax impact, which will be some tax benefits in the first two years when I claim some property depreciation, only to be recaptured in the tax year when I sell the home. This makes the tax consequences almost only a cash flow concern.)

So, it all comes down to the guess of whether/how much my home will appreciate in value in the next two years. With an annual appreciation of 2.4%, Option 2 is a break-even plan by itself, but if the appreciation goes to 4.3%/year, it will make Option 2 as attractive as Option 1.

Still, it is not an easy decision after running the math. The same property appreciates at 12% a year in the last two years, but it does not indicate the future will be as bright or as half bright. Therefore, in the next part, I will explore different assessments of the current housing market, and make an educated guess.