Contributed by mm | January 28, 2004 01:22 PM
PST
Greg McBride explained in this BankRate article why changed behavior of foreign banks, like the recent rate cut in Japan and Canada, will bring upward pressure for US domestic long-term interest rates. The theory: foreign banks wants to keep the exchange rate for US dollar stable to avoid impact to local exporting industries. They used to buy dollar in the foreign exchange market, and invest the dollar in the Treasuries, which keeps the US long-term interest rates at bay. Now that Fed is in no hurry to increase US interest rates, foreign banks are switching gears by lowering domestic interest rates (and thus making local currencies less attractive). Their decreasing appetite in buying US dollar (and therefore the US Treasuries) may bring US long-term interest rates higher. 
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