
Jim Cramer's Mad Money - June 15, 2005
Sumner Redstone's Brilliance
The separation of Viacom into a value and into a growth entity is brilliant, brilliant! And exactly what Wall Street wanted. He joins a pretty prestigious company frankly, notably Kirk Kerkorian. Hey, Kirk, that old dog just produced eight points of gain. Who knows what Sumner can do?
Unless those of you playing the home game have labored on the buy side you dont know that this is a buy. On the buy side there are three giant constituencies. 1) The hedge fund cohort who lives for UPOD. Under promise, over deliver. Redstone has savaged the hedge fund community with his repeated over promise and under deliver. The hedge funds never want to hear the name Viacom again and Sumner youve taken care of that. Then theres the value mutual funds.
These guys are fuddy duddies. Theyre never going to understand the value of MTV or any of those ancillary MTV stations that my kids would pay hundreds of dollars for if I let them have a credit card. Theyre never going to understand the annuity and growth streams of Nickelodeon; they think its all hype. The fuddy duddie value guys like dividends, big profit, something you can sink your teeth in. They hated that portion of Viacom.
Then there is the growth cohort, the momos, momentum guys. They love Nick; they love MTV, the movie biz. They couldnt stand radio; they dont have much love for television either. They think those are no growth businesses with really bad demos. What Redstone has done has created pure plays for both groups. Hes banned the hybrid.
You want value how about the monster cash flows from radio and outdoor advertising. How about the huge sums that CSI makes and the rest of that TV network, even as it is somewhat demographically challenged.
CBS Chairman Les Moonves, you know what he knows how to do? He can schmooze with the best of those value guys. He even looks like one of them! He can play the role, sit around the country club and swap stories. Hell be perfect, play some golf Les! Give us a big dividend too, a big one! ALL ABOARD. How about what this has done for the growth junkies. All the high growth without the rusty old anchor of radio, the ballast of theme parks. You gotta love it. The only problem I see it how long are these two companies be able to stay independent? I think theres gonna be buyers for both of them. Thats what I call a high quality problem.
Bottom line: One point off its 52 week low (bells going off) BULL- Viacom is right
Q: Has media sector moved from consolidation to spin-offs?
A: Im kind of agnostic about this sort of thing. I think its only far to say that right now we like simple. We dont like the mosaic that is Time Warner (TWX) Whats that levered to? Time Magazine, instant messaging, books? We need simplicity and Viacom, 1-1=3. BULL Viacoms for me.
Q: You think its time to blow out Disney (DIS) and pick up Viacom?
A: When I started this show, Mad Money, I started the show telling people that Disney was a good buy and Im not backing away from that. I always thought the problem at Disney was the lack of leadership at the top. Its too early for Iger to make his mark yet and Im not backing away. I dont think you need to sell one to be in another. BULL.
Remember Turbo Chef (TCF) the other day?
Up another smacker today, lot of talk about some good contracts coming. Dont forget it switches to NASDAQ and symbol OVEN next week.
Sears (SHLD)
BULL - Up 6% today, better than a sharp stick in the eye eh?
Best Buy (BBY)
How bout the Best Buy BULL you know I continue to like that stock even up again.
Kohls (KSS)
BULL. Bizarre things happen after they are finally free of the mud that has pinned them to the ground. Analysts get off the bus right at the wrong moment. Today KSS got a downgrade from someone in the Midwest from Baird. It hasnt been much of a stock since it became a national company. The company has been inconsistent in its delivery, a little bit like the GAP. Finally though, KSS has broken out and is ready to run. ALL ABOARD, ALL ABOARD, ALL ABOARD. Its got some really good numbers a head of steam and some incredibly easy comparisons. Its broken free the mud that its been stuck in. What is this guy from Baird, this fella, do today? He downgrades KSS. As I like to say in my written product WRONG!
You gotta understand that when a stock is done being stuck there are a lot of people who have been pushing the bus the whole time and they are so relieved that the bus is finally moving that they are saying, Woo Im out of here, thank heavens, Im downgrading KSS. You know something; once its free the last thing you want to do is get off the bus. You want to say all aboard.
Now, what do you do if you are playing the home game on the KSS? I would use this moment to be able to buy the stock. BULL. I would use the Baird downgrade to make my move and buy the KSS even as I believe that some of the retailers out there, notably my favorite, URBN, have reached nose bleed territory on fabulous June weather and inventories. Just like SHLD where a lot of people got off the bus cause they felt it was stuck, just like the TCF, once they start rolling never get off the bus when the bus gets going, NEVER. Buy KSS. Some people think that KSS is just for women, I know plenty of men who shop there. I even know people who buy there clothes exclusively at KSS. Look at me, I know I sound like a paid advertisement for KSS, but thats how much I like the stock right now. Might I add that the stores are pretty darn good too.
Q: Is it time to ring the register in the retail sector?
A: We never get angry at anybody who takes a profit on Jim Cramers Mad Money. If youre in the URBN, BEBE, ANF, AEOS it wouldnt be bad to take a little profit. The bottom line is: These stocks are going to sell off at the end of the month cause the expectations are so high and youre gonna have to get back in them cause theyre still the best thing going.
Scandal Payouts
What if C and JPM paid everyone $45? You should care about scandal payouts. Are these banks really the guarantors of what they sell?
Let me tell you a story I learned when I first got to Goldman Sachs in the 80s. My boss there used to sell vacuum cleaners before he sold stocks and bonds. He told us you made a lot less money selling vacuum cleaners than you did stocks and bonds because you can always take back vacuum cleaners, money back guarantee, theyre risk free. Stocks, bonds, are you kidding? Its always been caveat emptor, buyer beware. When something is buyer beware and cant be taken back you get a bigger commission. Not anymore though.
These huge payouts for these banks are outrageous. They repeal the whole notion of the customer having any responsibility. Believe me; these customers had all the resources and intelligence that was possible. The customers had all the ability to know more, if not tons more, than the sales people who put the products in their pockets. They dont deserve to get their money back from the brokers, the brokers didnt commit the frauds and they often didnt know them. Something sinister is going on here. Lets call it the high payout low multiple factor. Thats where youre in t a business with low margins, underwriting debt in this case, and you have to insure the debt to all those who really should know better like the institutions who are recouping some of those losses in Enron and WorldCom.
These payouts remind me of the massive, and I think very wrong, payouts that Pharmaceuticals have had to make to people who took $200-$300 worth of drugs. While not as egregious as the pharmaceutical payout where you take $300 in pills and get $3 million in damages, it is in many ways worse. I bet JP Morgan and Citi made fractions in profits on the bonds they underwrote versus what they have to pay out and there is no way they could have found these frauds. More important, though unlike the patients who took the drugs in the pharma example, these buyers were totally and utterly sophisticated. They dont deserve the states protection. It is outrageous. The people extracting cash from Citi and JP Morgan knew better and they absolutely dont deserve this payout.
But Jim you ask, what about the everyman who had his savings ruined because these firms got their analysis wrong? Doesnt JP Morgan have a moral obligation to protect these people? PERSONAL FOUL! A moral obligation, are you kidding me, youll never hear it out of my mouth on TV again. Look, Im a pretty compassionate guy but Im not here to have a discussion about ethics. Put away the Aristotle, Aquinas and Kant they dont even have anything on securities law as far as I know.
Bottom line: You repeal caveat emptor you take away the upside. This is no longer a great group these financials, even after they put the payouts behind them and the loss gets discounted in the stock prices. The permanence of the guarantee is no a ridiculous, an utterly ridiculous cost of doing business BEAR and I am infuriated by it.
Sheriff Jim
My goal here is to introduce you to some stocks that have been shooting stars. Now we know that the trajectory of a shooting star isnt necessarily always positive.
Stephen Hosmer, CFO of Royal Energy (ROYL) joins Cramer:
Cramer: What happened that your company increased 33% in value yesterday?
Hosmer: I believe that the market finally recognized what weve been trying to do for 20 years. To efficiently produce domestic natural gas and to adding supply to this country that sorely needs that supply.
Cramer: My sources indicate that there have been times when you have had trouble filing your quarterlies and annuals in a timely manner. Youre the CFO have you fixed that up?
Hosmer: Yes we have. With all of the additional reporting requirements it is much more onerous than it used to be and we are getting that tuned in.
Cramer: How big are these finds? How much is there? Is there a lot there? Hasnt a lot of it already been discovered?
Hosmer: A Department of Energy study that was done about 10 years ago estimated that there were 317 trillion cubic feet of gas left in the domestic U.S. and that over 50 trillion feet was in California.
Cramer: And you guys have how much of it do you think? The reason Im playing the skeptic here is because when a stock has had a 33% increase I think the operative thing to do is to take profits. Im trying to figure out why not to tell people to ring the register on this great gain.
Hosmer: For our company, were a substantially family owned company. We had gone public over 15 years ago. Went onto the NASDAQ in 1996. Weve been consistently executing on our strategy over 20 years. I believe that right now the market is recognizing that we have value and I think weve got a lot more growing to do. But we havent sought out stellar three digit gains. Weve been consistently executing on our business plan for twenty years.
Cramer: Excellent. I like oil and gas. I am playing a guy on TV who is excitable but I will tell you this. I believe that it is so much better to own a CHK, an ECA than to buy a stock like ROYL up here. I have to take a page from my own book. When do you buy ROYL? Last week, not tomorrow.
Cramer talks with DayStar Technologies (DSTI) CEO, Dr. John Tuttle
Cramer: How important is your cost structure versus other guys with solar and is that why your stock went up 16% yesterday?
Tuttle: Well I think the cost structure for our product is certainly anticipated to be better than what the mainstream product is today. We are based on a material that doesnt require silicon. We are also the form factor of the material is a much thinner material and hence the energy intensity and the amount of raw materials needed to make the silver cells and the manufacturing equipment and the labor required and the way weve designed the manufacturing systems and factory all point to cheaper solar cells.
Cramer: On Monday you announced that you had reached a deal to sell some solar cells to Blistrom(?) of Germany. What is some? Is it material?
Tuttle: Actually, we announced the German order last Thursday and this firm in Germany has agreed to buy a substantial portion of our production capability over the next four years. Right now, since we have different product lines theyve agreed to buy a substantial portion of our mainstream product line, we call is Terra Foil, its a flexible solar cell. Theyve agreed to buy up to 50%, maybe as much as 75% of that product line. We also have the ability of producing other products.
Cramer: Solar land stocks, my take have been on fire. I think this stock has more legs but please, remember (ring ring sound), nothing the matter with taking a profit.
AM I DIVERSIFIED?
Diversification is the only free lunch. No one sector can take you down if you are diversified.
PORTFOLIO: WAG, PFE, STZ, XOM, BUD
A: WAG we know is best of breed drug store. PFE one of the finest pharma companies although not my favorite. XOM not my favorite but we like the dividend, growth prospects. BUD and STZ two alcohol plays, thats a pair, this is not Texas Holdem. I need you to schnitzel out of the BUD even though I know that Warren Buffetts buying it. Keep the STZ and buy a bank. Talked about JPM, C.
PORTFOLIO: NWS, SBUX, LEH, BA, DWA
A: Jim gets his briefs at Target. SBUX Excellent place to get a cup of coffee also a good retailer. LEH massively good qtr there. BA Aerospace and defense we like that. DWA uh oh I smell a pair, NWS and DWA are too much alike. I need you to sell the DWA, they blew the quarter anyway and pick up how bout an OIL!
Disclaimer: I AM NOT JIM CRAMER. I sometimes write the summary in first person because my brain doesn't quite move fast enough to process and type at the same time, so please excuse that. This blog has no affiliation with Jim Cramer, CNBC, or Mad Money. If you'd like to contact Jim Cramer email him at madmoney@cnbc.com, or call 1-800-743-CNBC. This summary is done for you and I to be able to better track and follow Jim Cramers comments. The show goes by quickly so I try and catch as many keywords as possible for each stock because of this, ACCURACY IS NOT GUARANTEED but is however strived for.
NOTE: I've added today's closing price to each of the stocks listed below. The "m" next to the stock symbol links to the stock on moneycentral.msn.com while the "y" does the same to finance.yahoo.com
TTWO - m y - 28.58 - Take-Two Interactive Sft. - You like kids doing grand theft? SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL. You should get out of that stock.
MEE - m y - 40.36 - Massey Energy Company - BULL - cheapest of the ones. Arch Coal I think has had too big a move
IMCL - m y - 33.87 - ImClone Systems Incorporated - BEAR - Didn't like it at 43, 42, 41, 35 - reiterate my sell at 33. SELL SELL SELL
AMGN - m y - 59.84 - Amgen, Inc. - BEST of breed, we like that also like DNA
WAG - m y - 46.11 - Walgreen Company - BEST OF BREED - BULL - we like that - tell the buckeyes to go buy it
QSFT - m y - 13.25 - Quest Software, Inc. - bull - be careful, other stocks I don't like SEBL, ORCL
IVGN - m y - 77.67 - Invitrogen Corporation - ring the register - you need to schnitzel out of that and get some DNA my friend
ASPT - m y - 10.25 - Aspect Communications - not one of my favorite stocks, I don't like anything in the telecom business - BEAR
IDNX - m y - 5.15 - Identix Incorporated - BEAR - not for me also Laser Card is another one I don't want to touch
BRK.a - m y - 83610 - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. - BULL - great company buy a lot
MSO - m y - 27.56 - Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. - BULL - I'm now thinking she's out of the woods and I'm pressing the bull. New position for me.
NSI - m y - 13.53 - NutriSystem Inc. - I don't want no NSI - why don't you just work out harder BEAR
TZOO - m y - 36.04 - Travelzoo Inc. - NO! Sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell - this is a very overvalued company. Machine gun sound
DPH - m y - 5.26 - Delphi Corporation - Hallelujah they're gonna stay out of bankruptcy - you should ring the register - take the profit above 5.
UPS - m y - 69.85 - United Parcel Service - Love the guys at UPS - worried about the postal service - said I wanted to buy it under 70 and now here I am, like a chicken afraid to pull the trigger. Gotta tell you something - BEAR - In that group right now
EK - m y - 27.89 - Eastman Kodak Company - DIVE DIVE DIVE DIVE - sell it, going under 25
HIG - m y - 75.12 - Hartford Financial Services - Good company - BULL
AMLN - m y - 18.76 - Amylin Pharmaceuticals - BULL - staying long the AMLN here - we're going to do Byetta scrips next Monday I'll give you a real hint on how its going. Stay long.
CAT - m y - 98.58 - Caterpillar Inc. - For me, cyclical exception. BULL - when they raise the dividend and decide to split the stock, enough is enough, it's working BULL
PAYX - m y - 30.43 - Paychex, Inc. - Swap out and into ADP
ADP - m y - 42.55 - Automatic Data Processing - Swap into this from PAYX
AW - m y - 8.21 - Allied Waste Industries, Inc. - More cyclical than people realize. Don't like trash game at this point in the cycle. BEAR - I would ring the register.
BF - m y - 68.22 - BASF AG (ADR) - We have enough second rate chemical companies in our own company, don't go to Germany. Rather see you in DD or DOW at 43.
DD - m y - 46.83 - E.I. DuPont de Nemours - 1st rate chemical company - BULL
DOW - m y - 47.02 - The Dow Chemical Company - 1st rate chemical company - BULL
FRO - m y - 37.63 - Frontline Ltd. (USA) - No - all over with these tankers, they've peaked. BEAR - signaling they are going to continue to go down I don't want you in them.
LF - m y - 11.4 - LeapFrog Enterprises, Inc. - Jump out the window, stay out of the stock.
KMG - m y - 74.25 - Kerr-McGee Corporation - No no. BEAR - one of the few oil companies I'm no longer recommending. I want to swap out of the majors and into the intermediates.
GW - m y - 6.88 - Grey Wolf, Inc. - BULL - land drilling with nat gas growing through the roof? That's for me.
VGR - m y - 19.31 - Vector Group Ltd. - BULL - I want MO. Swap into MO.
DUK - m y - 28.45 - Duke Energy Corporation - BULL - You know I like Anderson that CEO. He's even into the global warming thing, not bad.
GI - m y - 32.81 - Giant Industries, Inc. - Refining is for me. Like TWO more than VLO here.
VLO - m y - 75.94 - Valero Energy Corp. - ring the register, please be careful here
ANF - m y - 68.38 - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. - I want you to start ringing the register, estimates have gotten really high - still think they can beat em but I don't think it rallies after that.
DHB - m y - 8.71 - DHB Industries, Inc. - ring the register - very 2003 stock idea.
EQT - m y - 67.65 - Equitable Resources, Inc. - BULL _ Could be a sleeper gainer if we ever get rid of the Public Utility Holding act which we should by the way. Always liked the company
CYD - m y - 13.24 - China Yuchai International Limited - Isn't that one of them communist stocks? Stick with capitalism. BEAR.
GTW - m y - 3.34 - Gateway, Inc. - Personal foul - SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL DIVE SELL
SSCC - m y - 11.08 - Smurfit-Stone Container Corporation - Rather see you in Bowater
WB - m y - 50.5 - Wachovia Corporation - Not as bad as it used to be - rather see you in CBH which I think is taking it to WB
CMCSA - m y - 31.72 - Comcast Corporation - BULL - own it personally, that stock is for patient people though
CHK - m y - 22.53 - Chesapeake Energy Corporation - How do you like those guys? They come on the show when its at 18, 19. They buy a ton of stock and then it goes higher - BULL - and everybody who watches makes money - THAT'S FOR ME!
Don't have time to write these up yet but wanted to point everyone to two articles. First, is Richard Wilner's piece in the New York Post titled, Smart 'Money'? You'll have to login, for free, to read the article but it's worth the hassle. There ... Read
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This is a fantastic service you're providing - thanks!
For those of you on the energy sidelines, here's a thought:
Cramer consistently endorses oil/gas related stocks even at these levels. For the value players out there, that can be a hard pill to swallow. But think about it as a hedge - a position that not only helps diversify your portfolio, but your "life" position as well. Right now, high oil is raising (or has the potential to raise) the cost of many of the products and services we buy. So buy an energy stock - if crude stays above $50, you'll profit, and if it tanks, you'll have 50 other reasons to sing HALLELUJAH!! Few investments are as win/win as that.
I agree...FANTASTIC SERVICE!!! I love it!!!
I don't always get to watch the show and your synoposis is awesome!
I don't know how you find the time or energy to do this, but you have my eternal gratitude.
Thanks for a great job.
Really great service! With these old ears, can't catch all that Cramer is saying but now I can look it up. Giving your webb site to my pals. We are all in the same boat. Thanks again.
This is GREAT!!! I sometimes try to scribble down the stocks and then can't remember what he said about them! This is awesome!! You're almost as good as Jim himself!!! Thanks man!! We luv ya!!
hey, just wanted to join the others and say "thanks!" even when i watch the show i sometimes miss things...great to be able to catch up. i really like the feature you just added with links to yahoo finance! outstanding, keep it up!
What Viacom is Jim refering to...VIA, VIAB?
Hi Bryan - The chart I saw Jim Cramer show was the VIA.b
the-mtb-investor.blogspot.com
i know you guys didn't believed me the last time i said taser was mentioned in his 6/13 show, but i swear that novatel (he was bull on this one) was mentioned on last night's show! didn't anyone else noticed?
also, does anyone know is there a site that i can watch (or listen) to this show online? i already know about his real money show archives at thestreet.com, i need mad money now!! does anyone record madmoney in their computer and might be willing to share them with me? :) btw, thanks BA for all the work you put into this site.
Hey everybody,
Remember to toss a few bucks BA's way!!!
It's obvious how much benefit we all get from this fantastic blog.
And while I've no doubt he appreciates all the thanks and kudos, I'm sure he'd also wouldn't mind having a few dollars sent his way for the tremendous amount of time and effort he puts into creating this site.
Let's all help keep this site going!!!
Philip
Thanks for doing this service. Makes watching the program fun, knowing i dont have to jot down ideas.
PS - Threw some duckets your way.
Thanks Dan!!!
Now if only BA's 6/16's & 6/17's show blog would magically appear :)
after each show how quickly do you post
love your sservice.june 16 or 17 jim mentioned a stock selling for 7.02 that he would definitely buy. its risen 75 since he last mentioned it. it was called something or other WORKS. i believe the stock s first word started with an s,but could be wrong. can you help me. thanks
Just gladly tossed a some bucks BA's way, Phil!!!
Hi Elliot - I believe the symbol you are looking for is SWKS. It was a BULL call of Jim Cramer on his Jun-16 Mad Money TV Show
(close-to-close)
17-Jun-05 7.94
16-Jun-05 7.09
the-mtb-investor.blogspot.com
This is very good information. I also want to let everyone know a gentleman Bill Rillio has started a virtual stock portfolio. This portfolio buys and sells exactly what Jim Cramer says to buy and sell on Mad Money. He started it when the show began. He buys everything in the lightning round as well as stock picks of the week as well as special mentions of stocks during the show. If there is a sell call and its in the portfolio he will sell it then.
So want to know how good Cramer really is then you need to watch this portfolio and see what happens.
We have a link to it on our web site on the left under "Additional News Links" here:
Enjoy,
tipLabs
tiplabs-
It appears to me that the portfolio you are linking to contains massively different numbers of shares in each stock. I can understand that possibly the more he speaks to a stock the more shares it may have but there seem to be a number of inconsistencies that worry me. WFMI - how does it own only 100 shares? HD and LOW, also only 100 shares while it owns 10,000 shares of ALSK? A portfolio tracking his picks would be great but without weighting picks in some consistent manner I don't see much value in the portfolio.
BA
