New Diabetes Drug could be the next Avastin

Amylin (AMLN) and Eli Lilly (LLY) Release new drug. Byetta treats type-2 diabetes. I think Amylin goes to 20, maybe higher. Avastin’s been the hottest drug around. Analysts are split on Amylin. Avastin’s been the hottest drug around. It had over 500 prescription orders in its first week on the market. Over 1500 prescription orders in its first 5 weeks. Good numbers. In its first 3 days on the market Amylin Lilly’s Byetta had 271 prescriptions. This puts it in the range to reach Avastin levels.

Maybe one drug has a bigger drug than the other? The market for colorectal cancer will be worth about 2.8 billion next year. The market for diabetes drugs though? At least 27 billion dollars. Type 2 diabetes represents at least 90% of diabetes cases. Every year over 1.1 million Americans are estimated to develop type 2 diabetes. Much bigger market than Avastin. Byetta is the first drug in its class. Studies have also shown that its better than its leading competitor, GSK’s drug. Also leads to a weight loss, a serious advantage for a drug that treats diabetes. 1500 prescriptions in the first month, that’s the benchmark that I’m looking for in the first month. It will only take a handful of doctors to prescribe Byetta to get it to that benchmark and put it on track to become a 700 million to 1.2 billion dollar drug.

A lot of nay-sayers claim it won’t do well because it has to be injected. I think diabetics will be just fine injecting a helpful new drug like Byetta.

Let’s look at the two makers. Amylin is much smaller than Lilly. Its market cap is less than 2 billion. Amylin is the leveraged play, even though it’s already up. Look where its gone? It’s been a real loser. Here’s what I would do if I wanted to make money here. AMLN was up 11.1% usually after a big move like this the price would drop the next day as investors turn trader and try to book profits. You could either wait until later in the day tomorrow and buy AMLN or if you are really skeptical wait until the end of the month and see how close Byetta comes to my 1500 benchmark. Then, you know what I would do; I’d buy AMLN hand over fist.

Should I buy Generic Drug Stocks to Hedge Against Other Drug Stocks?

We need to have companies that are more than just warehouses and manufacturing pill factories. It is the formulas and proprietary drugs that make drug stocks worth it. Whether it be Mylan, TEVA, it doesn’t matter. You are never gonna here me on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money recommend a generic drug. Huge risk, small reward.

Should I swap out of drug stocks and into managed care stocks?

Cramer owns UNH

UNH is the big winner, that’s the one to buy right here. Stocks in the pharmaceutical industry, they’re not the winners right here.

If I’m looking for dividends should I move from drugs into oil?

Bottom line here for you: You work at Merck, you need to be diversified away from Merck.

Most Opportunistic Award given to John Huff, CEO Oceaneering International (OII)

According to SEC filings Huff sold 63,100 Share of Oil Stock after appearing on “Mad Money”. Huff says he’s been selling shares periodically because he’s retiring in less than a year. I always want to knock off some shares ahead of that. He also said he sold 50,000 shares for a similar price back in March and still owns about 1% of the company.

Come on the show, talk your stock up I think that’s fabulous. But you come on the show, say good things, and then blow it out the next day? As Bob Toll said, not kosher. This is not kosher. Opportunistic? Yes. Good? The jury is very out.

Top 10 Reasons Purcell Didn’t Matter

1. The name Morgan Stanley means nothing
2. Under attack from regulators
3. Too big
4. Too many players
5. Hedge Funds
6. Sideways Markets
7. Mutual Funds
8. Can’t Use Research
9. Can’t Bundle Research
10. Direct Access Brokers

This week when Bear Stearns reports I think everything has changed. I think BSC is the cream of the crop now. It’s the best house in an awfully bad neighborhood. Think of it the way you think of Toyota Motor. Bottom line: I don’t want to own Morgan Stanley with or without Purcell. I’d rather have you be in the Bear but even then I prefer Whole Foods (WFMI) to all of them.

Is it a bullish indicator that online brokers are not getting new customers?

There really is nothing that can’t be determined about the volume and interest level about the stocks. People are just beginning to close accounts now. How do we know that we aren’t in the infancy of that trend. Forget about the averages, forget about the Dow and S&P. We’re gonna find a couple of companies that are going to grow faster and better than everything else and the heck with it. Bottom line: I do not care about the volume, I just care about the managements and the growth opportunities of the individual stocks.

Do you think Washington Mutual (WM) may be too risky now?

Candidly, I have not been a real friend of Washington Mutual. Bottom line: This company is not good enough to stay independent forever, it yields 4%. I’m not a huge fan of Washington Mutual but I certainly wouldn’t throw it away here. Citigroup (C) for Washington Mutual? Nah I just assume keep the WM.

World Poker Tour Enterprises (WPTE) CEO, Steve Lipscomb joins Cramer:

Lipscomb: We make television, we are the NFL, NBA, PGA of poker.

Cramer: How are you going to compete with Partypoker.com?

Lipscomb: PartyPoker was an aspirant online poker site trying to catch Paradise poker when it first aired as a part of the World Poker Tour. Now they are about 50% of the entire market.

Cramer: Your company has had lumpy earnings. If you got online gaming would that smooth the earnings a bit?

Lipscomb: It’s really the big huge play for us. In the international market where there is no question about illegality we can with comfort, as a public company take those bets. That revenue stream could outstrip everything else we do and as you say smooth out everything and earnings with ease.

Cramer: Yahoo and Google no longer running their ads in the US on this are they worried?

Lipscomb: Comes to the fact that the Justince Department has said that in the US they’ don’t believe that its legal for people to accept bets. WPTE is not accepting bets and has a very intense security module to make sure we are not accepting bets from this territory or any other where it’s a question.

Cramer: One last question: Poker, not always a big game when I was growing up, suddenly a big game. How do we know that this is not a fad and the moment my viewers buy the stock the game ends?

Lipscomb: The WPTE was the first to actually brand something that 50-80 million Americans due on a regular basis. The exciting thing about the future is the 20 something’s who want to participate in this new sport.

Cramer: Reluctantly I’m pressing this: BULL. Those other companies are going to come public and they are going to carry this trade up and you are going to make money, I believe, because the other guys are going to pull it up. I wish that they had that steady online gaming from the US, they don’t, but boy what a hot thing they got going now.

Quick Ideas

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) - Announcing a separation of its printer and pc business. Could it be a prelude to a break up yes, that’s why that stock is going higher. It is only on a break up that you want to own that stock and that’s not good enough for Jim Cramer’s Mad Money. We like to have earnings AND some sort of valuation. We don’t have the earnings on our side with Ford Motor.

For Motor Company (F) – Once before sold some stock in Hertz, 18% at 25, then a few years later bought it back at 40. Here we go again with it being spun off again. My take is, they seem to not know when to sell it. You probably could win BULL on the sell off. I’ll probably take a hard look at buying Hertz when that’s done.

McDonalds (MCD) – The last two times McDonalds had a Mad Cow scare like we have now the stock sold off just like it did. If you bought it on the sell off and waited six months you handily out performed. I’d be a buyer right now. It’s worked twice before, one time for a 12% gain.

Q: Will MCD’s change in menu return it to a growth stock?

A: I think MCD is too cheap to ignore. It’s the cheapest I’ve seen MCD vs. the others in some time. My take: I hope you are going to pick up some of the MCD and by the time I see you at Dunkin Donuts I hope it’s above 30, 31.

PICK OF THE WEEK: Best Buy (BBY)

I think the stock could trade down after earnings. When that happens ALL ABOARD. Buy a little, let the market take it down a little more in expiration, get your full position in and then you’re ready.

MAD MAIL:

Email: Costco (COST)
A: I think it’s darn cheap, you should own it

Email: Do you use stop loss orders on a regular basis?
A: Those are for morons, try to be able to stay close to the market and run the stocks yourself. If you can’t do that, use a mutual fund.

Email: Do you even have XM or Sirius satellite radio?
A: In one car I have the Sirius (SIRI) , in the other the XM (XMSR). I like them both BULL

Disclaimer: I AM NOT JIM CRAMER. I sometimes write the summary in first person because my brain doesn't quite move fast enough to process and type at the same time, so please excuse that. This blog has no affiliation with Jim Cramer, CNBC, or Mad Money. If you'd like to contact Jim Cramer email him at madmoney@cnbc.com, or call 1-800-743-CNBC. This summary is done for you and I to be able to better track and follow Jim Cramer’s comments. The show goes by quickly so I try and catch as many keywords as possible for each stock because of this, ACCURACY IS NOT GUARANTEED but is however strived for.

NOTE: I've added today's closing price to each of the stocks listed below. The "m" next to the stock symbol links to the stock on moneycentral.msn.com while the "y" does the same to finance.yahoo.com

AMLN - m y - 17.63 - Amylin Pharmaceuticals - BULL - Like the new drug - Byetta, see comments earlier in show
MYL - m y - 17.7 - Mylan Laboratories Inc. - Don't like generics, huge risk, small reward - see comments earlier in show
TEVA - m y - 32.43 - Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) - Don't like generics, huge risk, small reward - see comments earlier in show
UNH - m y - 51.19 - UnitedHealth Group Inc. - The one to buy right here - see comments earlier in show
MWD - m y - 50.88 - Morgan Stanley - I don't want to own it with or without Purcell - see earlier comments
BSC - m y - 99.08 - The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. - Best in a bad neighborhood, similar to TM in that case. Like WFMI better than BSC and MWD
WFMI - m y - 114.3 - Whole Foods Market, Inc. - Like it better than BSC and MWD
WM - m y - 39.94 - Washington Mutual Inc. - Wouldn't throw it away here - not a huge fan - see earlier comments

The Lightning Round:

SGTL - m y - 22.17 - Sigmatel, Inc. - I don't mind the stock, you know the only semi I have the heart for is for INTC
INTC - m y - 27 - Intel Corporation - BULL
COLM - m y - 46.5 - Columbia Sportswear Company - Not one of my favorites, don't like all the big dept stores combining could cause problems for COLM's margins. Don't want to own the stock
HOT - m y - 56.57 - Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc - BULL
FS - m y - 72.31 - Four Seasons Hotel Inc. (USA) - BULL
CD - m y - 21.63 - Cendant Corporation - BULL - Own it
HLT - m y - 24.19 - Hilton Hotels Corporation - BULL - Like it very very much, great management, stock still cheap.
PG - m y - 54.31 - The Procter & Gamble Co. - BULL - the stock to own here, take advantage of the decline - BULL
KKD - m y - 8.56 - Krispy Kreme Doughnuts - If you think it doesn't matter what a company does or is or how its doing then that stock is for you. The veritable train wreck of every growth stock. SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
OSK - m y - 79.23 - Oshkosh Truck Corporation - BULL - Company is very hot I like it
INGR - m y - 33.91 - Intergraph Corporation - Ring the register - can't believe its gone where it has
MFE - m y - 26.63 - McAfee, Inc. - I like MFE - BULL
SYMC - m y - 21.16 - Symantec Corporation - I like it back here at 21 - two thumbs up to the antivirus group
KSWS - m y - 33.92 - K-Swiss Inc. - BULL - like that shoe business
RBK - m y - 42.45 - Reebok International Ltd. - BULL - like that shoe business
NKE - m y - 87.14 - NIKE, Inc. - BULL - like that shoe business
WWW - m y - 24.79 - Wolverine World Wide - BULL - like that shoe business
SONS - m y - 4.89 - Sonus Networks, Inc. - DIVE DIVE DIVE SELL SELL SELL
CSL - m y - 69.28 - Carlisle Companies, Inc. - BULL - one thumb up but not two, a little too cyclical
APPX - m y - 39.96 - American Pharmaceutical Partners, Inc. - Think the stock is expensive, is profitable, is growing BULL
PNR - m y - 43.25 - Pentair, Inc. - Own it myself, sold some here which was probably a mistake - BULL - water filtration one of the great growth businesses
KFX - m y - 13.9 - KFX Inc. - Troubled situation, I don't like alternative energy BEAR - ring the register - if it goes to 15 sell sell sell
IIJI - m y - 13.9 - Internet Initiative Japan, Inc. (ADR) - Too hot for me, I'm scared of this. BRAKES sound.
ITRI - m y - 40.09 - Itron, Inc. - Read meters, very stable business - I'll bless it
ATHR - m y - 8.37 - Atheros Communications, Inc. - Why my friend? Radio frequency has been like a dagger in my heart BEAR
PEET - m y - 32.03 - Peet's Coffee & Tea, Inc. - I say swap out of PEET into SBUX because of the China play
JNY - m y - 31.74 - Jones Apparel Group, Inc. - See what I said about COLM - it applies to JNY. I DO NOT like to be a supplier to clothing stores right here
SNDK - m y - 25.28 - SanDisk Corporation - Ring the register - falling sound.
PSRC - m y - 9.2 - PalmSource, Inc. - Get PALM instead, I like the treo.
APOL - m y - 81.09 - Apollo Group, Inc. - Online education, ring the register, I think that stock is too high and expensive
BJS - m y - 52.15 - BJ Services Company - BULL - going higher in my opinion I'm looking for a MONSTER quarter
AGEN - m y - 5.93 - Antigenics, Inc. - Not buying this until I see some real hard data, not like the anti-cancer vaccine stories, too much hype not enough numbers
G - m y - 51.99 - The Gillette Company - BULL - I like PG too BULL
UPS - m y - 70.17 - United Parcel Service - Worried about USPS, wouldn't sell it at 70. BULL - too good a company
MU - m y - 10.85 - Micron Technology, Inc. - Bear - I don't want to touch it with a ten foot pole
CMI - m y - 72.03 - Cummins Inc. - Rather than be in this battleground look at PCAR or OSK if you have a real trucking fetish'
LLTC - m y - 38.18 - Linear Technology Corp. - BEAR - only semiconductor stock that's gonna get the big two thumbs up on this show is gonna be the Intel.
VTIV - m y - 17.22 - Ventiv Health, Inc. - Hard to understand, swap out of that and go into AMLN
NYNY - m y - 5.21 - Empire Resorts, Inc. - No, do not like Para mutual racing business. Bear story SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
CBI - m y - 23.07 - Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V. - Bear - not for me.
CCJ - m y - 41.9 - Cameco Corporation (USA) - BEAR - uranium, another cycle story that ended in 2004.
BEAS - m y - 8.43 - BEA Systems, Inc. - Bear Stearns downgrade was completely full of it. Bear Stearns guy - you don't even know the beginning of how good the BEAS story is. Come on this show and debate me. Right now I think you are out of line.
RRC - m y - 25.65 - Range Resources Corp. - Oil and gas, lots of it - that's my kind of stock BULL
QTWW - m y - 4.36 - Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies - BULL - I bless it, I care about making money, not politics on this show

WPTE - m y - 19 - WPT Enterprises, Inc. - BULL - See comments earlier in text portion of summary
MCD - m y - 29.11 - McDonald's Corporation - I'd be a buyer now
BBY - m y - 59.12 - Best Buy Co., Inc. - Stock of the week - see comments in written section
COST - m y - 45.73 - Costco Wholesale Corp. - I think its too darn cheap, you should own it
SIRI - m y - 5.99 - Sirius Satellite Radio - BULL
XMSR - m y - 32.34 - XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. - BULL
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