
Jim Cramer's Mad Money - June 1, 2005
Not everyday is nirvana. But today it was.
Getting to Nirvana:
1) It takes time, 8 rate hikes
2) 80 to 20 mph > > Soft Landing
3) High Octane Fuel But No Inflation
4) Need Generals Stocks that are completely in a bullish pattern and dont want to quit
Cramers Six Five Star Generals:
- Google (GOOG) If it were a 29 stock that I told you was going to 35 youd say yeah get me into it. But because its 290 and I say its going to 350 you get nervous and worried. Stop it with that. 1999 had to do with taking up stocks that were going up for no reason. That is over worth. This stock is a 290 stock that is going to earn 7 dollars a share and should get a 50 multiple.
- Genentech (DNA) This stock would be clocked for speeding its going so fast. I think DNA is trying to get to 100 and is not slowing down.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) Hard to believe that this could be a General but now its one of the great performers of the era, shows no signs of slowing down and still only sells at 11 times earnings. Dont forget its a land bank in a country where land is still very cheap versus other countries.
- Intel (INTC) I know what youre thinking; its all the way up from 18. You know this sucker is down big from where it used to be. Its clearly breaking out in anticipation of something good. The summer used to be a terrible time to own Intel. It used to be Intel in May, Go Away. Nope. I think the better period is coming ahead three months ago.
- United Health (UNH) Get sick of me talking about it when you own the darned thing and its gone up a bit, until then you have no right to be sick of me talking about it. Still has a very low multiple, fantastic balance sheet, increased dividend and dont forget it owns the Medicaid plan. Seven months from now, Medicaid, thats right, and this is the one to go.
- Citigroup (C) This is a company that has now paid about 3 billion in fines and fees to just about everybody but how can this situation not get better. Company came out this morning and said business is not good and the stock still went up. Isnt that the General? Taking fire but not blinking?
Bottom line: You need to be in the Generals.
It is hard to find good quality stocks, I want to cherish them and sell them but I dont want to sell them. The toughest thing for me at this very moment is thinking you are a sucker getting in now. Thats where weve got the 50% off club.
50% Off Club: This is a group worth embracing.
Ive always felt its so difficult to pull the trigger after a big run that you need help and a little push. You need to know you arent paying the high.
- Corning (GLW) is Down 86% from its all time high. Are you really catching the top here?
- Motorola (MOT) Down 67% from its all time high. Multiple revisions up in earnings. I like that
- EMC Corp (EMC) Down 86% from its all time high. Kicking IBMs butt growing software and services. Maybe it should have never been that high but should it stay this low? No.
- Broadcom (BRCM) Down 87% from high of 275. Never lost its communications chip lead.
- Yahoo (YHOO) Still of 68% from its high.
We all know these highs probably shouldnt have occurred but when I look at these I think you arent paying top dollar yet, except maybe the Google. When you buy the 50% Off Club you know that the bottom line is that you arent getting in at the top, no way no how.
Beat The Racket: Best Buy (BBY)
Retail is SO right. How do I be sure I dont own the HOTT of the retailers? How do I know I own the Best of Breed? For the longest time my favorite hard good retailer was Best Buy (BBY). I wanted to get off the ship though because my friend, Matt Fassler, the Goldman Sachs Retail Analyst, downgraded the stock.
Cramer: When you downgraded Best Buy you had long term secular concerns.
Fassler: The biggest change from then till now is that management has changed its tune on how its coming at the music business. Back in January and February the company line was that they had a number of years to gradually manage the decline in store based music. The companys experience in the fourth quarter led them to come to terms with the fact that music is going to be declining farther and faster. Theyve made a couple of changes: Taking square footage away from music and gradually devoting it to video games and DVDs and working on their specific assortments of music. Managements treatment of that reality has changed.
Cramer: We were also concerned with virtual fire sales going on at competitor stores. Have those concerns lessened?
Fassler: The magnitude of promotional activity has flattened out.
Cramer: How do we play the hardware revolution in games?
Fassler: Best buy does a great job merchandising video games. In many newer stores you can sit and play the games. Nice game cycle coming in that space.
Cramer Summary: Best Buy BULL. One of the things that should take your breath away is that when you buy best of breed you adjust. They lessened the music, they changed, adapted and are flexible. The problems with Radio Shack and Circuit City are behind them. Fasslers right: IM A BUYER OF BBY.
SBC cut the prices of DSL access.
SBCs Ed Whitaker is one of those guys who takes no prisoners. Whenever he takes an action its usually because he just found out something good thats going to happen to a cable company. My take is that you take the other side of the trade. Id buy Comcast here. I see the possibility of a deal between a major cable company and a major cell phone provider for one price one phone number, one high speed cable modem line and that is what I think Whitaker was trying to get ahead of at SBC. Now, what happens here: Day one we have the Whitaker thing. Day two nothing, thats tomorrow. I think by Friday we hear exciting news by some cable company and some cell phone company that makes you want to own Comcast. Bottom line: Why wait? Comcast is being knocked down, take advantage.
AM I DIVERSIFIED?
Diversification is the only free lunch in the game my friends.
Portfolio: CTSH, GE, JNJ, MDT, NAT
Am I diversified?: No. GE, no problem. NAT, not a fan but I like the dividend. Problem is that JNJ and MDT leave you hostage to the stent and medical device business. Why not swap MDT out for Citigroup (C)?
Portfolio: GLW, MOT, INTC, TWX, DYN
Am I diversified?: No how no way. You are so deep in technology you put me in the way back machine to 1999. GLW and MOT are very much together. Layer on INTC and youre diversification is TX and DYN a little four dollar. If I were you Id swap GLW or MOT, Id prefer GLW and get into a bank, maybe a health care company.
Portfolio: HCA, USB, WMT, HD, AN
Am I Diversified?: No. This is a tough one. HCA, ok with me. USB, not my favorite but diversified with a nice dividend. Then three retailers. Id let go of the WMT. Think you should be in a diversified conglomerate and a defense company. Sell the WMT, sell the AN.
Cramer talks with Ara Hovnanian, CEO Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV):
Quarter missed the high estimate and therefore sent the stock down. Is this a buying opportunity given how hot the homebuilders are?
Cramer: When I look at what you reported, other than your tax rate, there really wasnt anything that was too disappointing. Am I too pro homebuilder?
Hovnanian: I dont think so. Our net income eps is up 53%. We beat consensus, perhaps not the highest person in the estimate. Frankly, Im thrilled with it. We raised our projections once again as weve done quarter after quarter for years now.
Cramer: UBS says this shortfall unit closings fell below our expectations in part due to weather delays. Does this guy know what hes talking about?
Hovnanian: The weather, particularly, the winter weather in California, the whole west coast, Arizona, was quite bad with a lot of precipitation, 100 year record levels. This had an impact on land development as without the streets being in, water, sewer, curbs, sidewalk, you cant build the houses or begin to build the houses.
Cramer: Makes sense. Do you have a lot of land banked that you can build homes on?
Hovnanian: We have a significant land position. We use a lot of options is buying land, which we like. About 25% of the lots we control and we control about 100,000 lots and the other 75% we have options on. We are particularly strong in the Northeast and New Jersey, also the D.C. market which has been very strong as well.
Cramer: To me this stock, down a buck is a mistake. If you like the housing group you just got a chance to buy it cheaper than it should be.
Cramer talks with Charlie Kleman, COO and CFO of Chicos FAS (CHS):
Cramer: What is it about you guys that you are able to accelerate your earnings the way you do?
Kleman: Its really number one the product, then the customer service, then the marketing. Thats probably the third reason, the Passport club included, it accounts for over 96% of our sales, thats through the Chicos brand and over 50% in the White House / Black Market brand we acquired about a year and half ago. 29 of the past 32 quarters have been over a 30% increase in Net Income. Thats a long run over 8 years.
Cramer: Where are you in terms of number of states youre in now? How far along are you in the development process?
Kleman: We have about 700 stores now. We believe we can have 600-800 Chicos stores, north of 500 White House Black Market stores and we just launched our intimate apparel line, Soma by Chicos, and we believe that can be everywhere Chicos can be.
Cramer: Wow, means they could double the store count.
Cramer Summary: Heres how I approach this stuff. I have retailers that arent at their 52 week high that I like more than this but heres what you do. Theres always gonna be some sale, in the stock market. Write this one down. At 32 I want you in.
Dont forget the Generals and the 50% Off Club: GOOG, DNA, TOL, INTC, UNH and C. GLW, MOT, EMC, BRCM, YHOO. Got to be something to buy there dont you think?
Disclaimer: I AM NOT JIM CRAMER. I sometimes write the summary in first person because my brain doesn't quite move fast enough to process and type at the same time, so please excuse that. This blog has no affiliation with Jim Cramer, CNBC, or Mad Money. If you'd like to contact Cramer email him at madmoney@cnbc.com, or call 1-800-743-CNBC. This is done for you and I to be able to better track and follow Cramers comments. The show goes by quickly so I try and catch as many keywords as possible for each stock because of this, ACCURACY IS NOT GUARANTEED but is however strived for.
PG - The Procter & Gamble Co. - Don't sell these stocks if you can help it. Good stocks are hard to find.
WFMI - Whole Foods Market, Inc. - Don't sell these stocks if you can help it. Good stocks are hard to find.
HOTT - Hot Topic, Inc. - Don't need to go there, enough problems with the good ones
BBY - Best Buy Co., Inc. - BULL - See comments earlier in show
GOOG - Google Inc. - One of six five star General's leading the market higher. See comments earlier in show. BULL
DNA - Genentech, Inc. - One of six five star General's leading the market higher. See comments earlier in show. BULL
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc. - One of six five star General's leading the market higher. See comments earlier in show. BULL
INTC - Intel Corporation - One of six five star General's leading the market higher. See comments earlier in show. BULL
UNH - UnitedHealth Group Inc. - One of six five star General's leading the market higher. See comments earlier in show. BULL
C - Citigroup Inc. - One of six five star General's leading the market higher. See comments earlier in show. BULL
GLW - Corning Incorporated - Member of the 50% Off Club that I know I'm not buying at the highs. BULL
MOT - Motorola, Inc. - Member of the 50% Off Club that I know I'm not buying at the highs. BULL
EMC - EMC Corporation - Member of the 50% Off Club that I know I'm not buying at the highs. BULL
BRCM - Broadcom Corporation - Member of the 50% Off Club that I know I'm not buying at the highs. BULL
YHOO - Yahoo! Inc. - Member of the 50% Off Club that I know I'm not buying at the highs. BULL
JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. - After the bell says its like the worst quarter ever for trading. Trade better will you?
The Lightning Round (Are you ready SkeeDaddy?):
WM - Washington Mutual Inc. - BULL - near the end of the tightenings it goes from a stock I loathe to a stock I like
SWN - Southwestern Energy Company - BULL - even though its at 52 I wouldn't ring the register
AIRT - Air T, Inc. - UPS and FedEx are better Best of breed my friend
SSRI - Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) - BEAR - I'm not endorsing a silver stock on this show - no how no way
JOSB - Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. - Stock won't quit - BULL - good stock here, maybe wait for a little pullback before buying
JOE - The St. Joe Company - I think that as the land banks go ST Joe is solid. I love it. 800,000 solid acres of land.
BSX - Boston Scientific Corp. - Dive. I'm giving up on BSX and I've been very patient
DBRN - The Dress Barn, Inc. - Nice quarter after the close. I like this although I don't shop there
MO - Altria Group, Inc. - BULL - waiting for June decision to come down in Illinois. After that decision I think they break the company into three segments and I like all three but the only keeper will be Kraft.
FL - Foot Locker, Inc. - Ring the register - like all sorts of shoe companies but doesn't mean I need to go to the stores where they sell the stuff
MTZ - MasTec, Inc. - No no. These guys lay down the fiber. Don't like company ort the management. That stock is NOT for me. BEAR.
ITT - ITT Industries, Inc. - BULL - one of the great sleeper stocks. I wish they'd take Alcoa out of the Dow and add ITT
DSCO - Discovery Laboratories - Ring the register - you just got real lucky, you won the lottery.
NWAC - Northwest Airlines Corporation - Personal foul - All airlines with the exception of Jet Blue will receive that button from now on
CTL - CenturyTel, Inc. - Not bad if you have to own a telephone company but I don't so BEAR
REG - Regency Centers Corp. - Good but a little too high I prefer FRT.
UMC - United Microelectronics Corp (ADR) - That's not for me. Ring the register. It's a 3 dollar Taiwan thing.
PQUE - PetroQuest Energy, Inc. - May I suggest Cimerex (XEC) I think you'll be pleasantly surprised
CRM - salesforce.com, inc. - They are winning business hand over fist, kicking Seibel's butt. I say Hallelujah! BULL
PBI - Pitney Bowes Inc. - Nice, quiet good stock with good yield, good management. BULL.
ABFS - Arkansas Best Corporation - Not for me. If you have to own a trucker, and you don't need to, own YELL.
CMS - CMS Energy Corporation - I always want to buy this lower quality energy stock but then I see DUK or EXC and say get those instead.
DUK - Duke Energy Corporation - Get these instead of CMS
EXC - Exelon Corporation - Get these instead of CMS
DO - Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. - BULL - That's a good oil driller
HAL - Halliburton Company - another good oil driller that I like
SLB - Schlumberger Limited - another good oil driller that I like
R - Ryder System, Inc. - The time to own this was 1988 when I owned it last BEAR
NT - Nortel Networks Corporation (USA) - You just got lucky with that gain. Never too late to SELL Nortel.
FBC - Flagstar Bancorp, Inc. - Not expensive, niche bank. That company does well after eight tightenings. BULL
RDY - Dr Reddy's Laboratories Limited (ADR) - Much too generic for me, remember ABLE - you don't want that. How about DNA - they invent drugs there.
SEBL - Siebel Systems, Inc. - Swap out and into CRM Salesforce.com.
ARXX - Aeroflex Incorporated - Has fiber optics, no way no how. SELL SELL SELL
JSDA - Jones Soda Co. ( USA ) - Think this company is a sleeper way to be able to play drinks. Just got a Target contract. Think its the cheap HANS.
XRX - Xerox Corporation - Hear a lot of good things about Anne and I don't care. I want to sell the stock nine ways to Sunday. SELL SELL SELL
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Just want to send you mail about your blog.... awsome job. I read it every day, even after watching the show. I think its great that you have it to reference later. its a great tool to monitor cramers track record. keep up the good work. I have to ask though, how much longer can you do this?
-Colin
Great job! Keep up the good work. I really appreciate what you're doing.
Colin and JB - appreciate the comments. As for how much longer I can do this... depends on you guys. If you keep wanting to read the information I'll keep throwing it up here.
Love reading this...I watch the show ..take my own notes but your's are much much much better. Thanks!!
Your Cramer recap posts are almost a daily stop for me, I even hit some of the other pages just you'll get some extra ad impressions for your hard work. Thanks again
Just wanted to let everyone know I have been tracking Cramers's pick of the week for a little while. Here on the results for the last few. I buy 500 shares so here how it brakes down.
MFE Picked on 5/23 up $265 or 2%
NWS mid week pick on 5/25 even %0
TOL Mid week pick on 5/25 up $2,525.00 5.1%
MXT Picked on 6/1 up $95.00 or 1.46%
Total Up $2,895.00 +3.89%
So his pick of the weeks have been good. Cramer is still somewhat of a trader so I don't know how they will do in the long run, I am looking 30 days.
Ps THANKS FOR THE SITE.....
Great Job..please keep it up.
Thanks for the information, I came across your Blog purely by accident but it's a great help to a Cramer fan. After all who can keep up with that "crazy" man on "Mad Money". Thanks again and keep up the good work.
I ALSO TAKE NOTES BUT YOUR A LIFE SAVER AM OLDER AND ITS HARD FOR ME TO GET IT ALL DOWN AND UNDERSTAND WHAT MR CARAMMER IS SAYING YOUR NOTES HELP ME ALOT PLEASE KEEP IT UP
Your site is incredibly useful. If I might, I'd have one suggestion. A digest(weekly and/or monthly) would be incredibly useful when trying to do a search on a particular stock. Just combine all of the May daily blogs into one May monthly blog and I could search on XOM or UNH easily to see if Cramer's opinion changed.
As it turns out, your site has become one of my top stock research sites. Many thanks,
...theta
I'm a big fan, but tonight I was more than a little put off by Cramer's analysis of Citigroup. How can a five-star general one month ago, become a confusing and mediocre breed today? Has the company's structure really changed that much?
What is the deal with PMCS going down?
