Commodities are dead and the market is rallying because of it. Oil, steel and copper stocks are now traded as if we’re headed to a recession – and we’re not. The money coming out of the oils is going right into companies like Lowe’s (LOW) and Target (TGT). Death of commodities means lower costs for HD, LOW and retail. Every major retailer has been going down for months.

Lowe’s had fallen from 60 to 50 without Lowe’s saying anything. While now we now that it wasn’t so great, but it wasn’t so bad. Lowe’s sounded the all clear. You can buy TGT, SHLD, JCP, BBY, GME, WFMI, MCD, DRI off of LOW. At the bottom, the estimates are so low that even if they aren’t beaten, as in the case of Lowe’s, you still go higher.

Precious metal stocks: You needed to bet against these higher (gold and silver stocks). We can’t be as nimble as we’d like to be here. I don’t want to bet with them, and I don’t want to bet against them.

If you don’t own any oil stocks this would be the beginning of when you want to buy them. If you own some as I do you’ve got to keep being price sensitive. COP and XOM traded at these prices when oil was at $45. CVX and XEC value oil at $40. Some are reflecting $46, $47 that would be BP.

Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX): Onyx reported the results that I wanted and the stock went down anyway. Does that mean that the market’s wrong and I’m right? Nah, I’m wrong. Now, will Onyx do okay? I think the study showed that there is definitely going to be an FDA approval here. They had a progression study that was good. They got out-marketed this weekend by Pfizer. If I were at my hedge fund and I had recommended the Onyx, the question would be do I jump out the window or does my boss kick me out the window? I screwed up, I don’t want it to happen again, but I screwed up. When you look at the Wachovia downgrade of Onyx today he focused on just what you (the caller) talked about which is the one trick pony nature. Bottom line for me, Onyx at 27 is so close to its 52 week low it is being punished unfairly. I think, if I didn’t know any better I’d buy it for an investment, but the trade came and went and I screwed up, let’s hope I don’t screw up again.

At this stage we’re no longer in the oil going to $100 phase, but we also not in the oil going to $30 phase. The big international oils are still being valued too high (Oil at $46, $47). The value is in the independents. Take a look at the trading patterns of the independent oils, they go down down down till the margin trading window closes. Take a look at the action in XEC and ECA from 12:00 – 2:30. XEC is trading exactly where it was when oil was at $39, $40 a barrel. Encana could report great earnings for the next few years. But the big majors, they are off my list and I’m not going to recommend them any more on this show.

If I were still at my hedge fund I’d be saying I need a triple play here: I need oil companies that:

• 1) could get a takeover bid because I know that Royal Dutch and BP are having trouble finding oil


• 2) are located in areas that I regard as being non-hostile, meaning where I don’t feel like my workers are going to killed every day they go to work, places like Louisiana as opposed to Myanmar


• 3) I want companies that are now trading substantially below where they were before the big oil bubble.

There are some domestics that work, the internationals do not work and the domestics that do work, there aren’t that many yet which is why I’m focused on ECA and XEC.

Assembling our basketball team:

• Power Forward: Dell


• Small forward: EMC – think its going to become the class of the hardware/software field. It’s where people will go for storage software. It’s also going to take, continually share from IBM.


• Center: INTC – was doing well when all of tech was doing badly.


• Shooting Guard: GOOG – nobody likes a $200 stock except for the big guys, that’s a mistake. Remember nobody liked Berkshire Hathaway in 1980 when it traded at $200 and now its in the $80,000’s.


• Fifth man: Difficult to find a fifth man which is why I think the tech rally will not have legs.

Boy would I love to sink my teeth into tech but I can’t because they’re still in BEAR mode.

Cramer talks with Robert Hugin, CFO of Celgene (CELG):
Revlimid is more potent than Thalomid with fewer side effects.

Cramer’s take: here’s the real reason why you want to won this Celgene: This is a company that people have been betting against for so long, its almost as if the stuff they’ve come up with is not believed. The short position in this stock is gigantic and yet its incredibly well run, it has so much ahead of it in the future, it is not a one product company and this is a company that you are going to read article after article about for the rest of the year. BOTTOM LINE: I’d still buy the stock.

Disclaimer: I AM NOT JIM CRAMER. I sometimes write the summary in first person because my brain doesn't quite move fast enough to process and type at the same time, so please excuse that. This blog has no affiliation with Jim Cramer, CNBC, or Mad Money. This is done for me and you to be able to better follow and track Cramer’s comments, the show goes by quickly so I try and catch as many key words as possible for each pick. ACCURACY IS NOT GUARANTEED but is however strived for.

The stocks:
TGT - Target Corporation - You can buy this off of the LOW action we saw today
SHLD - Sears Holdings Corporation - You can buy this off of the LOW action we saw today
JCP - J.C. Penney Company, Inc. - You can buy this off of the LOW action we saw today
BBY - Best Buy Co., Inc. - You can buy this off of the LOW action we saw today
GME - GameStop Corp - You can buy this off of the LOW action we saw today
WFMI - Whole Foods Market, Inc. - You can buy this off of the LOW action we saw today
MCD - McDonald's Corporation - You can buy this off of the LOW action we saw today
DRI - Darden Restaurants, Inc. - You can buy this off of the LOW action we saw today
LOW - Lowe's Companies, Inc. - See earlier comments in paragraph form - BULL

The Lightning Round:

HAWK - Petrohawk Energy Corporation - BULL - I am not going away from the independent US oils, I still think they're takeover bait.
DUK - Duke Energy Corporation - It was not a mistake to buy Cinergy, Mr. Anderson is being trashed here for a very good deal. BULL. I want to buy DUK right here right now.
RIMM - Research In Motion Ltd. (USA) - BULL - I think RIMM works in this environment
SYY - SYSCO Corporation - BULL - my kind of sysco. We like the food distribution business much more than we like the router business.
MOVI - Movie Gallery, Inc. - BEAR - I like genuine growth and they don't have it (blockbuster, Hollywood, movie gallery)
NSS - NS Group, Inc. - Problem with tubular steel is that its got both oil and steel so I can't go for it
INT - World Fuel Services Corporation - That's a good business - BULL
IMH - IMPAC Mortgage Holdings, Inc - Still not a believer, I was bowling with mike Farrell this weekend who's the CEO of NLY. That's the only one I have any confidence in.
NLY - Annaly Mortgage Management - BULL
LNG - Cheniere Energy, Inc. - There is no glut in LNG - BULL
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation - This is a well run company but I can't bless it because I have too much Fed fear.
C - Citigroup Inc. - BULL - the way I'd play housing, credit. Darn cheap with a good yield, I like that
JKHY - Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. - Software for banks, BEAR - throw in CA, don't like big consulting software companies
CA - Computer Associates International, Inc. - Don't like big consulting software companies
TYC - Tyco International Ltd. - Been killing me in my charitable trust, I've been selling the stock here. That was a very disappointing quarter, second in a row. You can't disappoint twice. This is a two strike game and you're out! BEAR
LU - Lucent Technologies Inc. - BULL - many quarters of profitability, balance sheet better than it used to be, company buying back the convertible preferreds. I think that Pat Russo is doing a dyn-o-mite job. It's a tough sector, its coming back but I can't invite other people into my own personal house of pain.
NSI - NutriSystem Inc. - No, staying away from that sector, too hard for me.
ISRG - Intuitive Surgical, Inc. - Ring the register
KRB - MBNA Corporation - Why be here when you can be in COF? I think its better. That last quarter was not to like
AAUK - Anglo American plc (ADR) - Way too cyclical for me. This kind of stock is not working in this environment and I'm not gonna sanction it
SOV - Sovereign Bancorp, Inc. - I want to sell this and buy PNC
DD - E.I. DuPont de Nemours - Less cyclical that DOW. Notice how DOW went down today and DD went up, that's bullish for DD. If you have to own one I'd got with DD. It's the only chemical stock I'm currently recommending on Mad Money
ETR - Entergy Corporation - okay - I like DUK more than ETR. I bless that industry BULL
SONS - Sonus Networks, Inc. - Jump out window - no, stay away from this.
PRU - Prudential Financial, Inc - BULL - Its still cheap, that and MET are two I wish I owned, that's the highest compliment I can pay
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc. - Ring the register - This is range bound, $71 we're gonna buy it, $80 we're gonna sell it. Up and down path until the Fed gets off our back.
SYNM - Syntroleum Corporation - Sell sell sell, sell sell sell
PETD - Petroleum Development Corporation - I do like the natural gas stocks, BULL - please no more than 10% of anybody's portfolio in oil or natural gas though
NOK - Nokia Corporation (ADR) - BULL - this and MOT are in the sweet spot. I'm not pushing them because they've moved up already
MOT - Motorola, Inc. - BULL - this and NOK are in the sweet spot. I'm not pushing them because they've moved up already
STN - Station Casinos, Inc. - BULL - I like STN, I like BYD remember Caesar's Harrah's that combo is for me
CRXL - Crucell N.V. (ADR) - BULL - I do like vaccines, I do like that biotech situation. I do feel a little singed about Onyx (ONXX) but not enough that I wouldn't press that bull sign
LRW - Labor Ready, Inc. - At this point in the economy is not right - BEAR - I'm gonna lump in all the temporary staffing stocks that I know right now I don't like cause the fed keeps raising rates
AMGN - Amgen, Inc. - BULL - My favorite though is DNA in the group. Our parents like MRK, we like AMGN
VTSS - Vitesse Semiconductor - next.
CPN - Calpine Corporation - Sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell
DELL - Dell Inc. - BULL - Dell's good. That was a darn good quarter.
TXU - TXU Corporation - BEAR - this is one utility stock that I gotta tell you I now believe the Merrill Lynch thesis that there are political problems there
APA - Apache Corporation - BULL - this and APC are both okay.
APC - Anadarko Petroleum Corporation - BULL - this and APA are both okay.
SLE - Sara Lee Corp. - This a company that has systematically disappointed me and even though its non-cyclical I'm issuing a TRIPLE SELL.
NAT - Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited - Tanker stocks are too hard for me - BEAR - too many tankers built in the last 18 months so I'm cutting back on the tankers
ABB - ABB Ltd (ADR) - No, let's stay away
CD - Cendant Corporation - BULL - own the stock personally, believe it’s the cheapest of the travel group
GDP - Goodrich Petroleum Corp. - BULL - we buy GDP, we like the domestic producers
QCOM - QUALCOMM, Inc. - I like it okay but I can't come up with anything good about it
JDSU - JDS Uniphase Corporation - Sell sell sell - train wreck sound
FBR - Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, Inc. - Met with the guy last week. I'm still not a believer, but I'm not willing to be able to say anymore that its going to keep on going down from here.
BPT - BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust - BULL - that's a good yielder
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CELG - Celgene Corporation - I'd still buy the stock - See comments in interview with Robert Hugin above.
COGT - Cogent, Inc. - As soon as you start liking a stock in this market they file, in this case a huge secondary offering so now Cogent is going to be dead in the water
WMG - WARNER MUSIC GRP CORP - Here is a deal that comes that just wrecks everybody, obliterates everyone who comes near it. This company reported a horrible quarter today, today! It just came out last week. It is still not too late to sell WMG
LAZ - Lazard, Limited Class A - It is still not too late to sell LAZ
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