
Jim Cramer's Mad Money - May 13, 2005
The reports that the hedge fund managers are driving this market down are greatly exaggerated.
Cramer talks with Doug Kass, Management President of Seabreeze Partners:
Conversation about Goldman Sachs (GS):
Doug Kass: The problem facing Goldman Sachs is the following: Their proprietary business accounts are probably as much as 20% of their aggregate net income and the tailwinds to proprietary trading have turned into headwinds. What do I mean by that? There is an ever flattening yield curve, credit spreads are widening, were seeing the absence of an upward trend in the commodities market, chaos in the hedge fund community which is a primary client of theirs you have limited growth in mutual funds and underwriting and trading volumes are lower. There has been a rumor that Goldman has lost big time in fixed income. I believe that Goldman has lost big time in the crude oil market where they were long, and in the commodity and currency market. I think they face not only large losses in their prop desk but that their principal and trading business has deteriorated along with the rest of their peers. (To know this) All you need to do is speak to the company and look at value at risk or VAR which is basically a statistical measurement of daily money at risk with a 95% statistical certainty. Over the last 4 years their VAR has gone from about 25 million to over 70 million dollars a day.
Cramer: I believe that this is a very inexpensive stock. What about the possibility that it is overly discounting these negatives and we should be buying Goldman here?
Kass: Im sort of in the middle on this. As you know I shorted the stock about 3 weeks ago in anticipation. My problem is several fold. Firstly, the consensus estimate is 9.85 this year; I think it will be closer to $9. Next years consensus is nearly $10; I think the number will be closer to $8. So I think its probably too late to short, too early to buy. Im not short Goldman Sachs now, I covered some yesterday and today. I think the next move is to buy the stock but I do think its a bit too early Jimmy.
Cramer: He correctly indicated that the stock, at $112 was a sale. At 97 where the stock went today, hes not shorting it anymore. I regard that as bullish. My take is this these stocks are overdone to the downside. We could possibly begin to see some letup in the pain. I told you earlier this week that to me, the play was not Goldman but Bear Stearns (BSC). I dont care what Goldman has on the books, I think BSC is way too low. I told you to buy that stock yesterday. I continue to believe that the play is Bear, it acted GREAT today, Bear has none of these problems and is not involved in the situation. I think Bear had the arbitrage situation right BULL BUY BEAR STEARNS (BSC).
I think that the management at Bear Stearns (BSC) has a clearer and better handle on whats going on in this market than any of the other firms. I think Bear is uniquely positioned to know whats going wrong in the arbitrage market. I have my sources about Bear Stearns (BSC) and I think its the way to play two trends now. The problems at Morgan Stanley (MWD) because a lot of good people are leaving Morgan Stanley (MWD) and what I guessed turned out to be more of a problem at Goldman Sachs than I thought. Take advantage of everyone elses problems and buy Bear Stearns.
The charade of a tech rally is developing! When people buy Dell (DELL) they also buy the QQQQ, the SOX. We got surprising pin action from Dell. It was knocking down pins in the other lane. What should have gone up? Intel (INTC). Maybe Microsoft (MSFT). You need to sell the junk that went up and shouldnt have. NVLS, KLAC, AMAT BEAR, ring the register.
At 2:45 every day the cyclical stocks stop going down. This is because they are owned by the worst possible shareholders people buying them on margin. You can buy them at 2:45 cheaper than you can at any other time of the day because these margin clerks are butchers. You can put money to work right then.
Oil is 8% of the S&P; its still going to 10%. I think people should have 8% of their portfolios in oil.
Window to make money is SMALL in this market. Think about NVDA, youd be losing money almost every day but if you bought before the earnings pop BOOM you make money. Understand that these weeks are gonna pass too and well just have to be a little defensive.
Cramer talks with Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) Chairman and CEO Hollings Renton:
Onyxs skin cancer drug, Sorafenib is in Stage 3 trials.
Renton: We are very close to the same timelines as PFE. Not so sure about their filing in Kidney cancer.
Cramer: My take on this stock This stock hasnt run up huge in anticipation of the conference (ASCO) like most normally do. I think that the good news is yet to come. BULL. He just mentioned liver cancer by the way, I didnt know that (they were in Phase 3 trials). I think thats a good situation and Id be a buyer of ONXX.
Cramer talks with Joseph Neubauer Chairman and CEO of Aramark (RMK):
Cramers take: Next year at this time I believe hockey will be back. I think thats going to be a huge step up. This is a very early trend. To me this is a great growth business, I want to stay with it and I was glad that I bought some just before it started up.
Disclaimer: I AM NOT JIM CRAMER. I sometimes write the summary in first person because my brain doesn't quite move fast enough to process and type at the same time, so please excuse that. This blog has no affiliation with Jim Cramer, CNBC, or Mad Money. This is done for me and you to be able to better follow and track Cramers comments, the show goes by quickly so I try and catch as many key words as possible for each pick. ACCURACY IS NOT GUARANTEED but is however strived for.
NVLS - Novellus Systems, Inc. - BEAR - bear market stocks, ring the register
KLAC - KLA-Tencor Corporation - BEAR - bear market stocks, ring the register
AMAT - Applied Materials, Inc. - BEAR - bear market stocks, ring the register
BSC - The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. - BULL - Buy Bear Stearns and take advantage of everyone else's problems.
QCOM - QUALCOMM, Inc. - Qualcomm is not going to have a good set of numbers until the fall. The patient person buys QCOM here and it goes back to 33, buys some more of it. Because QCOM is the brains behind all cell phones. There is a pickup in demand of all cell phones.
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Company - Please sell them, they are getting crushed by Dell
LXK - Lexmark International, Inc. - Sold to you
EMC - EMC Corporation - The only data storage name that I really care for is EMC. I am not a big fan of tech, you should have some tech stocks.
Lightning Round:
GGG - Graco Incorporated - Fluid supplies are very good. Might have seen the MMM bought CUNO the other day, PNR up 1.5. Graco is in the sweet spot BULL I endorse the name
HELE - Helen of Troy Limited - Bear - that was one of the absolute worst quarters, did like it till it reported the quarter
TARO - Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. - Swap out and go into TEVA
KR - The Kroger Co. - BEAR - Don't like KR at all. Remember WFMI is best of breed.
FDRY - Foundry Networks, Inc. - No no, Ethernet layer 2 is not for me. BEAR - foundry is a 2000 name
SPG - Simon Property Group, Inc - BULL - one of my favorite REIT, really well run
VNO - Vornado Realty Trust - also like this - BULL
CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings - like this company very much but a $195 stock is not for me in this very difficult environment lets ring the register
GLW - Corning Incorporated - BULL - there are so many shorts who are stuck in that name it feel likes a stock yard I want to go long corning
FDX - FedEx Corporation - No no, swap out of FedEx and get into UPS.
CHA - China Telecom Corporation Limited (ADR) - no no, only Chinese stock I will recommend on this show will be an ETF.
IIVI - II-VI, Inc. - BEAR - I am such a bear on that segment over and over and over again
HON - Honeywell International - Too cheap to get rid of, I would NOT sell that stock BULL
HYDL - Hydril Company - BULL - please do not give up on the oil service stocks
EBAY - eBay Inc. - ring the register, I think its made enough of a move off the bottom, that stocks not for me
SBAC - SBA Communications Corporation - Sell the stock, I'm a non believer
NTMD - NitroMed, Inc. - I don't know it well enough - pass
UTX - United Technologies Corporation - BULL - I like it, don't believe the UTX Honeywell rumors, wish they'd split the stock already, UTX has very good growth
QTWW - Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies - This is one of the few speculative stocks that I will push a BULL on because I believe the Fuel Cells are going to work
WFMI - Whole Foods Market, Inc. - I think they can DOUBLE the number of Whole Foods stores and still not reach saturation. BULL
EDV - Consolidated Ed 7.50%'PINES' - BULL - nice sleeper I like it
EXC - Exelon Corporation - Like this too
COO - The Cooper Companies, Inc. - My favorite eye company is Allergan BULL, by the way stop selling EYET
HCBK - Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. - Why be in this when you can be in CBH or PNC financial
GOOG - Google Inc. - A little stall here, please do not lose heart, I think its going to earn $7 and deserves a 40 multiple
PKI - PerkinElmer, Inc. - This is not an expensive stock, I want to buy that stock BULL - that's where I like to be when the economy slows down which it is doing
GT - Goodyear Tire & Rubber - One of the few cyclicals that I like in this market. Hat is off to the people that turned that around by the way
MEOH - Methanex Corporation (USA) - No way too cyclical
DOW - The Dow Chemical Company - No way too cyclical
DD - E.I. DuPont de Nemours - No way too cyclical
EMN - Eastman Chemical Company - No way too cyclical
ORCL - Oracle Corporation - BEAR - don't like orcl one bit.
WXS - Wright Express Corporation - BEAR - sell WXS
UTSI - UTStarcom, Inc. - Personal foul - I want nothing to do with that stock absolutely nothing
RAD - Rite Aid Corporation - I like WAG, then CVS - reiterating my sell on RAD. Not gonna bend just because Carl Icahn took a position.
ONXX - Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - BULL - like prospects for kidney cancer and for skin cancer on that new drug
BWLD - Buffalo Wild Wings - Didn't like that quarter one bit - SELL that stock
CBR - CIBER, Inc. - Information technology that is not based in India I will have nothing to do with BEAR
SNDA - Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd ADR - That is a Chinese gaming stock that is not for me - SELL
DWA - DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc. - Think that Madagascar is going to be a big movie - BULL - May 27 big movie
WTR - Aqua America, Inc. - Weisel downgrades it and it takes the stock down $2 That's RIDICULOUS! I want to buy that stock!
WFC - Wells Fargo & Company - Ring the register - normally I'd be a bull but they did not have a good quarter buy PNC instead
CSG - Cadbury Schweppes plc (ADR) - BEAR - not as bad as it used to be
TM - Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) - These companies benefit from a decline in steel
BDK - The Black & Decker Corporation - These companies benefit from a decline in steel
IR - Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited - These companies benefit from a decline in steel
TSO - Tesoro Corporation - like it more than VLO right here
INTC - Intel Corporation - I see the stock going to 28 where I will ring the register and sell the stock after owning it these many decades
MSFT - Microsoft Corporation - Believe its stuck at 25
DELL - Dell Inc. - Looks like it could go higher, obviously somebody is short the stock
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