Oil – Sell them on Tuesday

This is not a great tape – I do believe that we’ve got to be as defensive as possible – If I were still running a fund – I’d be selling the oils tomorrow morning into the upgrades, ringing the register on the AIG, up a couple of smackers and ultimately recognizing that the Fed will either destroy the cyclicals tomorrow or destroy them Wednesday.

Ahead of when the Federal Reserve makes its move it’s a dangerous place to go in long all these brokerages. That said I think they (analysts downgrades) took a lot of the risk out of the stocks. I’d like to go the other way and buy with the exception of Morgan Stanley (MWD).

Caller Question: What should I buy if the Fed changes their stance regarding wording?

Disclaimer: I AM NOT JIM CRAMER. I sometimes write the summary in first person because my brain doesn't quite move fast enough to process and type at the same time, so please excuse that. This blog has no affiliation with Jim Cramer, CNBC, or Mad Money. This is done for me and you to be able to better follow and track Cramer’s comments, the show goes by quickly so I try and catch as many key words as possible for each pick. ACCURACY IS NOT GUARANTEED but is however strived for.

Cramer’s Answer: “Statement comes out at 2:15 – 2:17pm. The first guys that take action from 2:17 – 2:30 are always wrong – they are hair trigger idiots. They don’t know jack! At 2:30 we’re gonna get a real statement – that’s when we take a look and start buying the financials, unless… unless they say our work is not done and we have a lot more tightening – in that case, go in the fallout shelter and watch Mad Money tomorrow night and I’ll tell you what to do.”

Drug stocks are too hard to make money in – Biotechs are right. United Health (UNH) I like.

Health maintenance organizations / cost control companies are still good.

Cramer’s advice for a 20 year old trying to get into the market: Buy a share of Google (GOOG) and a share of Sears Holdings (SHLD) and as those stocks come down ten points a piece buy another share.

Cramer talks with Mel Karmazin:
Karmazin’s key points – Terrestrial radio will probably be sub GDP as compared to an industry that’s picking up market share. Advertising is growing more than radio.

NT - NORTEL NTWKS CP H - If you are still in that stock - DIVE DIVE DIVE - Sell that sucker
MWD - MORGAN STANLEY - How many times do you wish that you were on a board that got to vote over the weekend whether the stock goes up or down? Could have moved the stock higher but instead voted for lower prices
MRK - MERCK CO INC - Merck is going to get out of the earnings game entirely and get into the lawsuit game - if you can't handle that rollercoaster you MUST MUST sell Merck right now, you are going to be in the house of pain
WYE - WYETH - Wyeth is out of the lawsuit game - BULL
JNJ - JOHNSON AND JOHNS - 49% is going to be medical device after the Guidant deal closes
SGP - SCHERING PLOUGH C - If you need to own a drug stock this is it - the CEO is the only one in the group who has been battle tested
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Lightning Round:
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FCN - FTI CONSULTING IN - litigation play - like the stock
AGRa - AGERE SYSTEMS PFD - You don't want to touch that stock - BEAR
CMS - CMS ENERGY CP - Most undervalued utility stock in America, I like it - BULL
JDSU - JDS UNIPHASE CP - BEAR - If it was offered at -2, I'd offer it at -3 - like Nortel (NT)
WLL - WHITING PETE CORP - Cheap stock - next Tuesday will be the next time to buy whiting
SEPR - SEPRACOR INC - Think it goes higher - BULL - new sleep medicine
AHC - AMERADA HESS CP - BULL - one of my absolute favorite refining integrated plays - wait for sell off to buy
PARL - PARLUX FRAGRANCE - Bear- you don't want to be near parlux
SRE - SEMPRA ENERGY - BULL - Boring CEO but good company
DRL - DORAL FINANCIAL - SELL IT NINE WAYS TO SUNDAY
SUN - SUNOCO INC - BULL - think its like AHC a very good stock
ABC - AMERISOURCEBERGEN - You gotta sell it
CAH - CARDINAL HEALTH I - gotta sell it
MCK - MCKESSON CORP - gotta sell it
DOW - DOW CHEMICAL - Fed meets tomorrow and I don't want to be in the cyclicals when the Fed ratchets things up
NVS - NOVARTIS AG ADS - That is a good drug company - BULL
NWS - NEWS CORP - BULL - you got a good one with it
ANPI - ANGIOTECH PHARMA - Way too speculative for me - BEAR
AGO - ASSURED GUARANTY - Municipal finance - suspending coverage of that situation
PDLI - PROTEIN DESIGN - BEAR - one of the few biotech co's I will not sanction, too expensive for me
HIB - HIBERNIA CP A - We're not arbitrageurs - ring the register
DPZ - DOMINOS PIZZA INC - BULL - cheap, trying to get the CEO later the week- tomato prices have spiked and gotta find out if they are hedged
SHLD - SEARS HLDGS CORP - BEST IN SHOW - BULL - held up today even though retails were dropping
ADM - ARCHER DANIELS MD - BEAR - without some sort of ethanol relief this thing is going to continue to go down - horrible quarter
AUO - AU OPTRONICS CP A - LCD display stocks continue to get me - can't make a judgment
CMGI - CMGI INC - BULL - billion in revenues, refuse to give up on it - need a reverse split
HCBK - HUDSON CITY BNCP - NO - why be there when you could be in JPM or PNC - both are cheaper better with a better dividend
AMLN - AMYLIN PHARMA INC - Sell.
SYMC - SYMANTEC CP - Bull - so low - don't want to give up on it at this level
TWX - TIME WARNER INC - BULL - Under 17 you want to own it
MLNM - MILLENNIUM PHARM - Bear - the other biotech company I refuse to recommend on this show
MCRI - MONARCH CASINO - Bear - get into BYD instead
BDX - BECTON DICKINSON - BULL - better than black and Decker - the non cyclical black and Decker
DNA - GENENTECH INC - Talk about a biotech that I like - Avastin - still think the stock could go to 100 - don't feel like you've missed anything in that stock
DRIV - DIGITAL RIVER INC - Bear - not a fan, too expensive
YCC - YANKEE CDLE CO IN - Don't like that stock, last quarter was miserable - can't believe the stock still hangs in the 20s
TRMB - TRIMBLE NAVIGATN - Worried about it cause Garmin's quarter wasn't that good - ring the register
NBR - NABORS INDS INC N - One of the best mangers in the oil industry - that stock is for me - BULL
SWB - SMITH - No - Bear - get into bullet business, its better than the gun business
EOP - EQUITY OFFICE PTY - Like it. BULL.
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SIRI - SIRIUS SATELLITE - Is the stock a buy? An ideal call on a man who knows radio (Mel Karmazin), a man who dominates radio (Howard Stern), and a game that people listen too (NFL). If you want to have a speculation this is the kind of thing I would speculate on - you can see the charisma. I think it makes sense to own either SIRI or XMSR. I think I wish I owned it under $5.
STZ - CONSTELLATION BRD - PICK OF THE WEEK: Terrific quarter, come down a lot because of the worries it'll overpay to win in the bidding war for Allied Domecq. 1 down 7 up - that's for me. BULL
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