
Jim Cramer's Mad Money - April 28, 2005
It’s all about the Fed: The Fed’s worried about housing not Ford and GM
Market is about credit and liquidity, not inflation and home prices
Federal Reserve should be watching Visteon and Delphi
Can maneuver in this market – just don’t own anything cyclical
Disclaimer: This is my interpretation of Cramer’s comments, the show goes by quickly so I try and catch as many key words as possible for each pick. ACCURACY IS NOT GUARANTEED but is however strived for.
When people give up on the market that’s where the real money is made
We want the Fed to show what you and I know to be the case and blink at their next meeting – would result in a HUGE one day rally
Day 5 in a row down in oils should be tomorrow – we should be buying the oils hand over fist
Walk through the oil trading life cycle:
Day 1 – Profit taking because we are worried about inventories
Day 2 – Couple of downgrades
Day 3 – Pile –on
Day 4 – Guys who can’t take any more – the margin players
Day 5 – Hallelujah! – Buy
Repeat after me: “I’m going to buy an oil company at the open tomorrow”
JPM - JP MORGAN CHASE C - Like it here
C - CITIGROUP INC - Like it here
PNC - P N C FIN SVCS GR - Going higher
MO - ALTRIA GROUP INC - Like it here
GIS - GEN MILLS INC - Like it here
PG - PROCTER GAMBLE - Extraordinary growth here - like it here
CMCSA - COMCAST CP A - Brian Roberts, Comcast CEO, on the show. Jim owns Comcast. Cash flow matters. Brian Roberts is heading for the Super Bowl, don't listen to the research, get into it.
MSFT - MICROSOFT CP - Blah, nothing quarter. Paint is drying.
2:00 Drill
MATK - MARTEK BIOSCIENCE - One of the worst quarters he's ever seen - BEAR
SANM - SANMINA-SCI CORP - air brake - don't think they could report a good quarter to save their lives
TAP - MOLSON COORS CO C - Blew up - beginning to think that nobody's drinking beer anymore
RAH - RALCORP HOLDINGS - Private label cereals should be doing much better than they are but they're not
EL - ESTEE LAUDER COS - What a miserable quarter - swap into proctor (PG)
LIZ - LIZ CLAIBORNE INC - Supposed to be reliable what was that all about?
KRON - KRONOS INC - Jumping out of a window sound - BEAR
PG - PROCTER GAMBLE - One monster good quarter still buy the stock even up here
DOW - DOW CHEMICAL - great quarter - questionable one unless you believe the federal reserve is going to abolish itself - gotta buy stocks that are going to make me money and its just not that good here in the cycle
EMN - EASTMAN CHEM CO - Grin and bear it here
GLW - CORNING INC - Change the symbol already - monster good quarter - BULL - I'd buy it still
BR - BURLINGTON RESOUR - Natural gas how can you lose
MCHP - MICROCHIP TECH - Had to go pretty far down in tech to find a good one
PHM - PULTE HOME - But who cares?
BDK - BLACK DECKER CP - Had been pre-announced I'd ring the register
Lightning Round:
MTW - MANITOWOC CO INC - BEAR - get the heck out of the big cyclical stuff at this stage in the cycle
NOVN - NOVEN PHARMACEUTI - BEAR - too rich for me
NEW - NEW CENTURY FINAN - BEAR - don't want to own it - turn off the tv and sell the stock
ERTS - ELECTRONIC ARTS - BULL - you gotta live through another really bad quarter but then it will be nirvana - ERTS could be a comeback player for Christmas
ESRX - EXPRESS SCRIPTS C - Right kind of stock - very very right for this point in the cycle
HCBK - HUDSON CITY BNCP - Own PNC Financial instead
K - KELLOGG CO - What's not to like about K - get out of RAH and get into K
VLO - VALERO ENERGY CP - BULL - tomorrow is the bottom in VLO - when I'm right I know I'm right - at 67 I'm a buyer
HLIT - HARMONIC INC - How many times do they have to blow up?
CHK - CHESAPEAKE ENERGY - BUY it right here, cheaper than the insiders who bought at 21 22
ASO - AMSOUTH BNCP - BEAR - don't think they have a handle on the business cycle - PNC instead
DBD - DIEBOLD INC - Ring the register - quarter was too miserable for me - should be printing better numbers given the voting machine business they have
HCR - MANOR CARE NEW - This is managed care - good company - don't like the industry cause its too hostage to the federal government
WMT - WAL MART STORES - Lawsuits, this and that - like shopping at soviet style department store
WM - WASHINGTON MUTUAL - Fed's gonna blink that stock goes to 45 - dividend safe - BULL
MC - MATSUSHITA EL IND - Ring the register with them and the other Japanese companies - don't like the Japanese market here
ENH - ENDURANCE SPLTY H - Is there a Greenberg involved? Until I find out if there is a Greenberg involved in any way shape or form I am not going to recommend any insurance company on this show. Cause if there is one - Sayonara!
CMI - CUMMINS INC - No - way too cyclical - extend that to Eaton and PCAR too - Believe CMI will not makes its quarter because of what happened with Yellow (YELL)
PCAR - PACCAR INC - No - Way too cyclical here
ETN - EATON CP - No - Way too cyclical here
MLS - MILLS CP (THE) - BULL - Nice Real estate investment trust
PCU - SOUTHERN PERU COP - NO NO NO, last years story
XOM - EXXON MOBIL CP - Tomorrow morning I want you buy Exxon - management still using like a $24 forecast for oil - hello wake up and smell the crude
ATO - ATMOS ENERGY CP - think the stocks okay here - prefer you buy Encana (ECA) because all of its hedges are coming off right now
FRO - FRONTLINE LTD - pull the trigger (and buy) tomorrow morning
AV - AVAYA INC - Think that stocks is a BEAR - don't trust it
COP - CONOCOPHILLIPS - BULL - buy that stock under $100
BC - BRUNSWICK CP - Bowling - but also boating, which is way too cyclical for this stage in the economy
NOC - NORTHROP GRUM HOL - Love defense companies, Lockheed Martin, NOC, ATK
AIG - AMER INTL GROUP I - If they don't get tomorrow a new chairman or CEO then I'm going to change my forecast and say its 5 down, not 1 down.
WTR - AQUA AMERICA INC - BULL - think that company is terrific - one of the best stocks in the book
DIS - WALT DISNEY-DISNE - Believer in Bob eiger - BULL - I'd buy the stock
PLCM - POLYCOM INC - Voice and video - no
INGP - INSTINET GROUP IN - Ring the register
Earnings reports:
MSTR - MICROSTRATEGY CL - Disappointing guidance - Sell it if I were you
KLAC - KL A-TENCOR CP - Not too late to sell these stocks
COLM - COLUMBIA SPRTSWR - Big miss - before you sell this stock, remember this is similar to North Face - I'm afraid to tell people to sell COLM here because VFC could buy them out and integrate them into their incredible system and make the stockholders money
SBUX - STARBUCKS CP - Its China - lot of guys over there - they drinking the coffee Greenberg is right about starbucks, they've got the Chinese growth and I like it
Jim Cramer talks with Herb Greenberg:
FBR - FRIEDMAN BILLINGS - Greenberg: Big story is SEC investigation - right at the top of the market they go out an buy their own sub prime mortgage lender - there is more to the story here CRAMER: could be more fireworks ahead
JCI - JOHNSON CONTROLS - Greenberg: All the analysts love it - company came out in October and gave guidance - then in March they confirmed that guidance - only one thing - the guidance they were confirming was against earnings from continuing operations - foul - they changed the story on us. Company has all sorts of restructuring charges all the time and you can't do that all the time CRAMER: I'm downgrading that stock right now on this show - BEAR DIVE DIVE DIVE
Oil – Sell them on Tuesday This is not a great tape – I do believe that we’ve got to be as defensive as possible – If I were still running a fund – I’d be selling the oils tomorrow morning into the upgrades, ringing ... Read
Joyless buying done in last hour – some of the worst marking up I have ever seen because of the bad tape Major US oil companies are still a buy if oil falls to $45 – 50 a barrel Every time the oil stocks are ... Read
2.8% drop in durable goods mean that feds job is done – means you can buy FINANCIALS, HEALTH CARE, CONSUMER STAPLES – JPM, C, MO, PEP, KO, UNH, PNC – this is recipe for what works here when the Fed is winning “Better Than Expected ... Read
Not enough good to buy today Could buy CFC, ZMH today Fundamentals vs. Technicals – Technicals are a crutch that I don’t want part of. There is no solace in looking at charts when they are all headed down. Charts are not hocus pocus ... Read
