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My First Million

Lessons learned from a cautious investor who has already made it.

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IV. Whats the max I can safely spend each year?

I also wanted to know how much more I could "safely" spend. So I played with expenses to determine what point I become exposed to a 10% chance of running out of money at age 92.

The results below assume expenses begin at $6,444 / month*. My comments follow the table. [View first post in this series.]

* Expenses for baseline model are $5,111 / month

16K stress.gif

My comments

Bottom line: I could spend an additional $16,000 / year, and still have a 90% chance my money lasts to age 92. Or, I can keep my plan as is, and consider the $16K to be a margin of safety.

I. Can my retirement plan stand the test of time?
II. 42 more years of rising expenses (it's not a pretty sight)
III. My current plan passes by a wide margin
IV. Whats the max I can safely spend each year?
V. What happens if I assume more market risk?

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II. 42 more years of rising expenses (it's not a pretty sight) (September 28, 2005)
This graph is Fidelity's projection for my annual income and expenses. My comments follow the graph. [View first post in this series.] My annual income / expenses Read
III. My current plan passes by a wide margin (September 28, 2005)
With my total outlay projected to grow to an eye popping $319,970 / year, how well does Fidelity think my current retirement plan will weather the test of time? To come up with the results below, Fidelity's retirement program ran my current financial plan through ... Read
V. What happens if I assume more market risk? (September 28, 2005)
While my current plan and asset allocation are on solid ground, I wondered what will happen as I continue to increase the allocation to equities in my portfolio (which I am doing via dollar cost averaging). So in this test, I compare my current asset ... Read

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