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New I-Bond Rates 1 May 2005 - Prediction

The treasury will issue new rates on inflation protected savings bonds on May 1 2005. The rate is currently 3.67% (and exempt from state income tax). For those thinking about an I-Bond purchase it may make sense to hold off because

the new rates may be a bit higher than they are now. Here's my prediction:

I-Bond base rate: 1.3% (I believe this is linked to the yield on 5 yr TIPs)
I-Bond Inflation component: 3% (based on the latest data for the CPI-U)

I think the Treasury will announce a rate of about 4.3% or so - high enough that it may pay to wait.

-fg
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This post has 4 comments. Read and share your opinions.

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Comments
>>> A. Skywatcher Commented on April 17, 2005

I almost fell of my chair when I discovered your prediction on the next I-bond rate! I had been surfing all over the web for months looking for something like that-you are the only one with the guts to try something like this--a thousand thanks! It is really helpful in plotting my financial strategies for the next 6 mos.


>>> fg Commented on April 18, 2005

It is really just an educated guess. We are so close to the new rates it may make sense to wait and see where they end up.

-fg


>>> Jonathan Commented on April 19, 2005

"I-Bond base rate: 1.3% (I believe this is linked to the yield on 5 yr TIPs)" - Does it say this anywhere on the Treasure website? It'd be great if there was a way to predict the fixed part of the rate. I personally think the fixed part will stay the same or even go down.


>>> fg Commented on April 19, 2005

The 5 yr TIP has nosed down since my original post - I still stand by my prediction. Time will tell ...



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