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Contributed by mm | November 26, 2006 7:22 PM PST
Bob Frick at Kiplinger's Personal Finance argues Anheuser-Busch is a great value now. Although I drink Bud a lot, the current P/E ratio is too rich for my taste.
From Kiplinger's Personal Finance:
The truth is, investing in what you like isn't always the best strategy. Sometimes what makes the most sense is to invest in what's cheap. And I'm not talking about $5.24 for a six-pack of Bud versus $7.99 for one of Sam Adams at my local supermarket. At its November 15 close of $46.92, Anheuser-Busch (symbol BUD) trades at 17 times estimated 2007 earnings of $2.80 a share, according to Thomson First Call. By contrast, Boston Beer (SAM), at $35.72, sells for 26 times estimated '07 profits of $1.40 a share.
True, Anheuser-Busch's sales have been torpid the past few years while Boston Beer has been growing quickly. Also, Anheuser-Busch's stock has done little, basically waffling between $40 and $50 a share the past two years -- and there's nothing worse than flat Bud. But a research report from Zach's Equity Research issued recently makes a compelling case that the stock is poised to break out, much like the scene in Animal House in which the keg flew out of a Delta House window.
I use the words "much like," because a key driver of beer consumption is the "first-time drinker demographic," as Zack's analyst Steven Ralston puts it. That swath of males 21 to 28 years old makes up 13% of the population, but drinks 27% of the beer. And it's a growing group. Expect four million new legal beer guzzlers between 2003 and 2010, which translates to 1% to 1.5% more beer drunk per year. That might not seem like much, but considering that Anheuser-Busch has 49% of the domestically brewed beer market, even small increases in overall consumption can have a big impact on the bottom line.
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