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Contributed by mm | May 3, 2006 1:33 PM PST
Currency trading is a zero-sum game, and it is unrealistic to expect individual investors can beat the professional in this market. Maybe a wiser strategy is to buy foreign currency denominated equity, as recommended by the Oracle.
From Wall Street Journal:
Wall Street is increasingly encouraging individual investors to bet on foreign currencies, and money managers are rolling out a host of new funds to allow them to do this.
With many strategists expecting the U.S. dollar to continue to weaken in foreign-exchange markets, a number of Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., have begun advising individual investors to put a small portion of their assets into euros, yen and other currencies that are likely to increase in value as the dollar declines. Spurring the strategy in part are concerns that a falling dollar could boost inflation, which in turn could hurt prices of bonds and some stocks. Holding foreign currencies in a portfolio could help investors hedge against problems a falling dollar could create, these strategists say.
...
Still, foreign-currency funds are proliferating, with offerings ranging from mutual funds that buy money-market-type investments denominated in foreign currencies, to funds that use complex strategies including trading derivatives and short-selling, or selling borrowed securities in order to profit from an expected decline. Some funds employ leverage, or borrowed money, to magnify their exposure to currency movements. But this strategy also can exaggerate any losses, and can make funds more volatile.
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Timing Your Series I Bond Redemption (May 7, 2006)
The ultra-low inflation component in the latest semi-annual savings bond interest update is certainly disappointing, but it also created a good window to redeem your relatively new I-bonds without incurring a lot penalty. You don't want to redeem too early, though.
Buffett's Batting Average Is Sinking (May 6, 2006)
By scholastic measures, Buffett is lagging the competition in the last decade. Should you continue to believe in the Oracle's premium?
Disclosure: My Berkshire Hathaway purchase in last August and November only appreciated 1.1% so far. The stock is even more range-bound than MSFT. :-)
I-Bond Rate Drops, But There's Good News (May 2, 2006)
It is very interesting to observe how some claimed "experts" can have different views on obvious things. As reported in Bankrate, savings bond "expert" Dan Pederson believes that the new rates for both I-series and EE-series savings bond make them a good buy. I will ...
Do All Banks Have Moats? (May 1, 2006)
Morningstar neatly argues that banking industry players, by definition, have different levels of moat, which makes them attractive at reasonable prices. I agree with the thinking. Disclosure: Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are among my biggest holdings.
Interestingly the Oracle did bet against the dollar in the last couple years and lost a considerable amount of money as the dollar went up. He has since seriously curtailed his bets and since then the dollar has been going back down.
So the professionals aren't so good at it either.
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