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Bubble Over Troubled Waters





Plausible but invalid argument, fair and square.

From Slate:

Now, encouraging consumers to overspend on housing so they can stimulate the local economy may not be the best industrial policy. The bubbleor the long boom, take your pickencourages people to take on a lot of risky debt to buy expensive homes. And if it does turn out to be a bubble, lots of people might get hurt, especially those logging on to this Web site. But bubbles' ends are notoriously hard to call. In the meantime, a lot of people are working. Where would we be without all those housing-related jobs?

The apparent reliance on housing to spur job growth could mean we're cruising for a fall if the red-hot sector shows signs of cooling. But it's also possible that housing was the bridge that helped us get over the post-bust job chasm. Between June 2004, when the Federal Reserve began raising rates, and April 2005, Bangalore notes, "housing and related industries have accounted for 13.0% of private sector payrolls." In other words, as talk of a housing bubble increased, other nonhousing-related sectors were retaking the lead in job creation. To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson, it could be that a little bubble now and then may be exactly what this economy needed.

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