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Contributed by mm | June 14, 2005 8:58 AM PST
No conclusion offered but if the bubble is bursted, the consequenes will be ugly.
From Wall Street Journal:
If housing prices do fall, what would it mean for the economy? "A housing bust would be worse [than the stock bust]," says Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Why? Well, for one thing, housing is worth a lot more. According to the Fed, Americans' homes were worth the equivalent of 145% of gross domestic product in March; by comparison, their stocks and mutual funds were worth 130% at the market's peak in 2000, and just 82% now. Second, stock wealth is concentrated in the hands of the wealthiest Americans while housing is much more evenly distributed. A 2001 Fed survey found 68% of families own a home and the home's median value was $122,000. Just 52% owned stocks, either directly or through a mutual or pension fund, and the median value was $34,300. That disparity has since widened.
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Low Mortgage Rates Defy Expectations (June 2, 2005)
Very unusual ... the yield curve will be almost flat if Fed keeps raising Fed rate. Many people are certainly playing with fire now, and the outcome does not look promising.
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