Future market indicates Fed might pause the rate hike in two of the five meetings for the rest of the year. The bigger question: all these hikes barely changes the long-term rate.

The futures contracts send clues about what is usually the most important single issue facing the markets: What will the Fed do next? And the specific question on everyone's mind these days is this: Is the Fed, which has been raising rates for nearly a year and has five more policy meetings scheduled for 2005, about finished?

The answer, judging from the consensus reflected in the futures contract for December, is: We're getting close.

"The funds market is telling us they're going to pause at at least two of these meetings," said John Augustine, chief investment strategist at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati.

Mr. Augustine points to the current federal funds rate of 3 percent and notes that a quarter-point increase at each meeting - the pattern that has lifted the rate in eight steps from 1 percent in mid-2004 - would put it at 4.25 percent by year-end. The December contract, however, is now trading at 3.72 percent. He said he believes that the Fed is likely to stop its credit-tightening in meetings toward the end of the year.