
Guns & Butter
Marketwatch's Greg Robb gives an interesting look at the debate over the true economic effects (registration may be required, but it's worth it for great news) of the Iraq War. The key issue for us on a personal financial level is the impact on the Fed's interest rate policy.
I'll stay away from the Iraq/Vietnam comparisons as I have for most of the war. Likewise I have no interest in the political (read: emotional) debates.
But, this particular topic is interesting because of the grass roots impact it has on everything from your credit card debt to your mortgage. Of course, it also adds a nice juice to returns on your money market.
All told the Fed has raised rates 15 consecutive meetings to a current level of 4.75%. That's a hefty jump from the 1% in place when the increases started. Of course, at 1% there's really only one way to go - up.
The war is probably responsible for an extra half percentage point of GDP growth per year since 2003. That's generally okay, except that it's overheating the economy now (we're approaching productive capacity) and we're doing it with money we essentially borrowed from the Asian economies who don't want to see a drop in the dollar.
Of course, assuming there was no war could we also assume the money wouldn't have been spent on something else? That's a "pretty heroic assumption, given the unbelievable way the spendthrifts in Congress have thrown money at everything under the sun over the last six years," said James Smith, director of the Center for Business Forecasting at the University of North Carolina.
Bond funds in my portfolio are holding up to 50% cash right now so that's a decent hedge but it's definitely a waiting game until we know the full impact. You may want to throw politics to the wind and get some HAL after all.
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